There’s a lot of Kool-Aid that’s being drunk now by investors, Tim Gramatovich, who helps manage more than $800 million as chief investment officer of Santa Barbara, California-based Peritus Asset Management LLC. People lose their discipline. They stop doing the math. They stop doing the accounting. They’re just dreaming the dream, and that’s what’s happening with the shale boom.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tL’article est long, document\u00e9 d’une mani\u00e8re irr\u00e9futable. S’il concerne le cas des ressources de la Californie, il repr\u00e9sente simplement l’arch\u00e9type des surprises qui attendent les investisseurs, les souscripteurs et les planificateurs de l’ind\u00e9pendance \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique, le re-birth<\/em> de la puissance am\u00e9ricaniste d\u00e9guis\u00e9e, comme pour le carnaval, en une sorte de United Saudi of Arabia<\/em> (USA, indeed<\/em>).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00abToday’s write down of the Monterey shale asset is a huge blow to Occidental Petroleum specifically, to California’s energy and employment dreams more broadly, and to the US’s energy dreams at a national level. This is not surprising at all to anybody following the shale story with a critical eye. We always knew that the best plays were being prosecuted first for obvious reasons; it’s human nature to go after the easy stuff first. And this is especially true for the folks in the oil patch.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbThe best plays were tapped first, not by some accident of technology or lucky holes plunged into the ground, but because they were cheapest to prosecute. The remaining shale deposits are less rich, more costly to explore, and the profitable pockets much harder to find. Your main take-away is this: the US has a lot less shale reserves on the books today than it did yesterday. Look for future downward revisions as the other remnant shale plays are poked and prodded and found to be wanting…<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tA la lumi\u00e8re de ces derniers d\u00e9veloppements, ce qu’on doit surtout mesurer c’est l’extraordinaire cynisme, ou absence simplement d’informations et\/ou d’int\u00e9r\u00eat pour la v\u00e9rit\u00e9 de la situation, ou bien les deux m\u00e9lang\u00e9s selon les services, qu’impliquent des r\u00e9v\u00e9lations. Il est \u00e9vident que l’EIA, qui est une administration f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, n’ignore rien de la situation r\u00e9elle du miracle du schiste aux USA. Pourtant, cette fable, cette narrative<\/em> consciemment d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e a constitu\u00e9 le cimier sur lequel s’est appuy\u00e9e l’administration Obama pour annoncer, il y a moins de trois mois, qu’il fallait prendre des sanctions extr\u00eamement s\u00e9v\u00e8res contre la Russie, recommandant notamment aux pays europ\u00e9ens d’abandonner leurs fournitures en gaz venant de Russie puisque les USA s’engageaient dans un m\u00eame mouvement, au nom de leur fortune \u00e0 venir en gaz de schiste, \u00e0 suppl\u00e9er \u00e0 l’approvisionnement russe. Cette promesse fondamentale, structurant une politique antirusse de grande strat\u00e9gie, a \u00e9t\u00e9 faite alors que la tendance des r\u00e9alit\u00e9s des gisements devait \u00eatre \u00e9videmment connue des services concern\u00e9s. Pour r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la remarque faite plus haut : a-t-elle \u00e9t\u00e9 faite, cette promesse, en parfaite connaissance de cause ou en simple ignorance de la v\u00e9rit\u00e9 de la situation ? Confiant dans la puissance du d\u00e9sordre (surpuissance-autodestruction) caract\u00e9risant le Syst\u00e8me, nous optons pour la deuxi\u00e8me hypoth\u00e8se. (Au reste, personne n’a vraiment pris au s\u00e9rieux cette proposition US, semble-t-il, et qui en parle encore…)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 23 mai 2014 \u00e0 11H58<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Le miracle du schiste devenu mirage Surprise, surprise … Pas tant que cela, comme le constaterait notre collaborateur Shalegas Gate, auteur des articles du 11 janvier 2013 et du 16 janvier 2013. Le site ZeroHedge.com du 22 mai 2014, reprenant un article de Chris Martenson, de Peak Prosperity, du 21 mai 2014, annonce que les… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[4967,15829,3600,15828],"class_list":["post-73893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breves-de-crise","tag-gaz","tag-monterey","tag-petrole","tag-schiste"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73893","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73893"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73893\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73893"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73893"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73893"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}