Apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9bat<\/a> entre les candidats r\u00e9publicains pour le Caucus<\/em> de l’Iowa du 3 janvier 2012, un nouveau sondage montre une accentuation tr\u00e8s nette de la popularit\u00e9 de Ron Paul qui n’est plus d\u00e9sormais, selon un sondage de PublicPolicy.polling<\/em> du 13 d\u00e9cembre 2011<\/a> qu’\u00e0 un point de Newt Gingrich (21% pour Paul, 22% pour Gingrich). Les plus r\u00e9centes positions \u00e9taient de 18% (Paul) contre 25% (Gingrich). La dynamique Ron Paul continue \u00e0 tourner \u00e0 toute allure.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tUne phrase de commentaire qu’on commence \u00e0 lire r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement : le parcours de Ron Paul vers le Caucus<\/em> de l’Iowa (gagn\u00e9 le 3 janvier 2008 par Barack Obama) ressemble de plus en plus \u00e0 celui de Barack Obama, dont on conna\u00eet d\u00e9sormais le destin.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThere has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbGingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he’s also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62\/31) and he’s now dropped 19 points to +12 (52\/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbPaul meanwhile has seen a big increase in his popularity from +14 (52\/38) to +30 (61\/31). There are a lot of parallels between Paul’s strength in Iowa and Barack Obama’s in 2008- he’s doing well with new voters, young voters, and non-Republican voters:<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb * 59% of likely voters participated in the 2008 Republican caucus and they support Gingrich 26-18. But among the 41% of likely voters who are new’ for 2012 Paul leads Gingrich 25-17 with Romney at 16%. Paul is doing a good job of bringing out folks who haven’t done this before.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb * He’s also very strong with young voters. Among likely caucus goers under 45 Paul is up 30-16 on Gingrich. With those over 45, Gingrich leads him 26-15 with Romney at 17%.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bb * Among Republicans Gingrich leads Paul 25-17. But with voters who identify as Democrats or independents, 21% of the electorate in a year with no action on the Democratic side, Paul leads Gingrich 34-14 with Romney at 17%.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbYoung voters, independents, and folks who haven’t voted in caucuses before is an unusual coalition for a Republican candidate…the big question is whether these folks will really come out and vote…if they do, we could be in for a big upset.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbPaul’s supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich’s are. 77% of current Paul voters say they’re definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich. Romney has much more solid support than Gingrich as well, 67% of his voters saying they’re with him for the long haul. Among only voters who say their mind’s totally made up, 29% support Paul to 21% for Gingrich, 18% for Romney, and 11% for Bachmann.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \n dedefensa.org<\/em><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" La tortue (le Dr. Ron Paul) se rapproche de l’Iowa Apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9bat entre les candidats r\u00e9publicains pour le Caucus de l’Iowa du 3 janvier 2012, un nouveau sondage montre une accentuation tr\u00e8s nette de la popularit\u00e9 de Ron Paul qui n’est plus d\u00e9sormais, selon un sondage de PublicPolicy.polling du 13 d\u00e9cembre 2011 qu’\u00e0 un… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[4566,7340,6208,3140,3310,1492],"class_list":["post-74324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-gingrich","tag-iowa","tag-obama","tag-paul","tag-ron","tag-sondages"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74324","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74324"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74324\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74324"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74324"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74324"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}