{"id":74576,"date":"2012-03-15T04:18:24","date_gmt":"2012-03-15T04:18:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2012\/03\/15\/ron-paul-approche-de-son-rubicon\/"},"modified":"2012-03-15T04:18:24","modified_gmt":"2012-03-15T04:18:24","slug":"ron-paul-approche-de-son-rubicon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2012\/03\/15\/ron-paul-approche-de-son-rubicon\/","title":{"rendered":"Ron Paul approche de son Rubicon\u2026"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ron Paul, o\u00f9 en est-il ? Sa position est \u00e0 la fois incertaine, bizarre et extraordinaire. De plus en plus, il appara\u00eet que Ron Paul est prisonnier<\/strong> du parti r\u00e9publicain (le GOP) bien plus qu’il ne le tient en otage, comme il l’esp\u00e9rait. Les fraudes, ill\u00e9galit\u00e9s, manipulations du GOP contre lui, pour qu’il ne puisse prendre une place significative dans les primaires, sont innombrables et \u00e9tablissent un rideau infranchissable, alors que l’homme dispose d’une popularit\u00e9 exceptionnelle qui le place en quasi parit\u00e9 avec le pr\u00e9sident Obama s’il concourrait contre lui dans la derni\u00e8re phase des pr\u00e9sidentielles Cela n’est pas pour surprendre Ron Paul, qui a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fameusement fait la r\u00e9flexion publique qu’il serait pour lui plus facile de battre Obama que d’obtenir la d\u00e9signation comme candidat du parti r\u00e9publicain. Alors, ne serait-il pas temps pour lui de se d\u00e9cider ?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tC’est \u00e9videmment l’avis de Justin Raimondo, tr\u00e8s attentif au sort de Ron Paul et ennemi jur\u00e9 de l’actuel GOP, qu’il tient pour le v\u00e9ritable War Party<\/em> des USA et, au-del\u00e0, du bloc BAO. Ce 14 mars 2012<\/a>, Raimondo envisage \u00e0 nouveau<\/a>, de mani\u00e8re plus pressante, ce probl\u00e8me. Son analyse revient \u00e0 cette exhortation, encore plus appuy\u00e9e : Ron Paul doit se pr\u00e9senter comme troisi\u00e8me candidat, car il a une chance de gagner selon cette formule<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tRaimondo fixe la situation actuelle de Ron Paul : \u00abThe results of the GOP primaries, so far, would certainly seem to suggest that. Paul’s support draws heavily from two constituencies one doesn’t normally associate with the Republican party: young voters, who are overwhelmingly independents, and antiwar voters, who tend to be Democrats. He has carried the youth vote and garnered a significant proportion of independents in virtually every contest: more significantly, polls show him beating President Obama in the general election by winning a huge portion of the independent and youth votes. Combined with the anybody-but-Obama vote, Paul’s potential base of support in a two-way race defines the contours of a winning electoral coalition, one that could win him the White House, bring about a major political realignment and upend the political Establishment in this country.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe problem, for Paul, is that the GOP leadership is<\/em> implacably opposed to his candidacy<\/em><\/strong>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tRaimondo d\u00e9crit ensuite le processus de fraude et de manipulation syst\u00e9matique entrepris contre Ron Paul, qui a d’abord affect\u00e9 les votes, qui touche m\u00eame, d\u00e9sormais, sa strat\u00e9gie<\/a> de rechercher \u00e0 amasser des d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s plus que des votes soi-disant populaires. L\u00e0 aussi, la fraude et la manipulation r\u00e8gnent, pour bloquer la tentative de Ron Paul.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abThe result is that, after an initial spurt of success starting out with a respectable showing in Iowa, and placing second in New Hampshire the Paul campaign has fallen back to its 2008 levels, with Ron rarely breaking 10 percent.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbThe response of the Paul campaign has been to hunker down and reassure its enthusiastic supporters and they haven’t lost their enthusiasm, not by a long shot that they have a strategy. That strategy is to concentrate on getting delegates, rather than winning beauty contests, i.e. primaries in which the results don’t determine who gets the delegates<\/em> [] However, the process hasn’t always worked out that way. The Paulians, having devoted themselves to learning the arcane rules governing delegate selection, and playing by the book, often arrive at these conventions to find that the rule book has been thrown out by the party leadership. Huge fights have broken out at these shindigs, and the going has been pretty rough: when the party leaders arrive to find the hall packed with under-30 Paulians, all waving signs and wearing buttons, suddenly the rules are revised, and the Paulian playbook is no longer applicable.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tEnsuite, Raimondo envisage divers cas de figure, avec notamment le cas d’un blocage \u00e0 la Convention du GOP, \u00e0 Tampa, en Floride, en ao\u00fbt prochain. Il envisage m\u00eame le cas o\u00f9 Ron Paul serait effectivement le facteur n\u00e9cessaire pour d\u00e9bloquer la situation, mais ce ne pourrait \u00eatre qu’en soutenant l’un ou l’autre avec ses d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s, et alors l’avantage qu’il en retirerait serait sans aucun doute minimal par rapport \u00e0 ses ambitions. (Raimondo envisage m\u00eame, avec d\u00e9rision, un poste de secr\u00e9taire au Transport qui serait donn\u00e9 \u00e0 Ron Paul dans l’administration future du candidat qu’il aurait aid\u00e9 \u00e0 s’imposer, et qui garderait la politique g\u00e9n\u00e9rale belliciste et centralis\u00e9e du GOP, une v\u00e9ritable humiliation par rapport au sens de la r\u00e9volution qui est la marque de la campagne de Ron Paul.) Dans tous les cas envisageable \u00e0 l’int\u00e9rieur<\/strong> du GOP, Ron Paul est perdant parce qu’il ne peut \u00eatre le candidat r\u00e9publicain, parce qu’il est d\u00e9sormais av\u00e9r\u00e9<\/strong> que la direction du parti r\u00e9publicain n’acceptera jamais une telle possibilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tTout est perdu ? Absolument pas, puisqu’il reste l’option nucl\u00e9aire : une candidature ind\u00e9pendante, qui lui permettrait de rassembler son \u00e9lectorat naturel, r\u00e9volutionnaire, hors des normes, qui est fait autant de r\u00e9publicains partisans de Paul, que d’ind\u00e9pendants, que de d\u00e9mocrates d\u00e9\u00e7us par Obama L\u00e0 commence la r\u00e9volution. Et Raimondo d’\u00e9noncer ses arguments<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abPolls indicate Paul would get anywhere from 18 percent to 21 percent running as a third party candidate, and the percentage seem to be climbing as the actual election draws nearer. These same polls indicate he would draw two-thirds of his votes from the Republican column, but I don’t think these drill-down analyses hold much water: what they leave out is non-voters, new voters, and most important of all future events. If the US starts bombing Iran before election day, or, say, we have another economic meltdown, as we did in the winter of 2008, then all bets are off and the prospect of a Paul victory becomes more than mere wishful thinking.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbA Paul third party candidacy would not only open up a prospect that, right now, seems highly unlikely if not impossible i.e. Ron Paul sitting in the Oval Office it would also place significant constraints on the other candidates, including President Obama. Faced only with a warmongering Republican, Obama can pretty much do whatever he likes when it comes to provoking, sanctioning, and threatening Iran: after all, antiwar voters have nowhere else to go. With Paul in the race, however, Obama is going to have to be very careful not to lose his left-ish antiwar constituency, which has so far stuck with him as the lesser to the two evils. If and when Obama makes his move against Iran, Paul’s third party campaign will be right there, scarfing up votes from the President’s disillusioned and angry former supporters.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbIndeed, the ultimate effect of a Paulian third party ticket could well be preventing the outbreak of a major war in the Middle East. This, it seems to me, is a factor the Paul campaign is going to have to weigh in the balance as it considers its options. In terms of the Paulians’ own principles especially their characteristic opposition to wars of aggression on moral grounds this is a powerful argument for launching a third party campaign.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tIl ne fait aucun doute, \u00e0 notre sens, que ces arguments de Justin Raimondo se r\u00e9f\u00e9rant aux \u00e9v\u00e8nements ext\u00e9rieurs<\/strong> \u00e0 la campagne sont extr\u00eamement importants. Il est vrai que Ron Paul placerait ses adversaires dans diverses positions \u00e0 la fois de porte-\u00e0-faux et de contrepied, dans la mesure o\u00f9 Paul d\u00e9fend depuis longtemps des politiques prospectives qui sont de plus en plus populaires dans le public US, alors que ses adversaires font ou projettent de faire (de continuer) des politiques de plus en plus impopulaires. Du coup, ses deux adversaires seraient forc\u00e9s \u00e0 d’extraordinaires gymnastiques pour tenter de sauvegarder leurs politiques tout en ne perdant pas trop d’un \u00e9lectorat de plus en plus hostile \u00e0 ces politiques, alors que Paul serait l\u00e0 pour attirer \u00e0 lui cet \u00e9lectorat flottant avec ses projets politiques correspondant \u00e0 l’attente de cet \u00e9lectorat. Il s’agit d’une dynamique pleine de d\u00e9sordre et de confusion par rapport au processus \u00e9lectoral r\u00e9gl\u00e9 comme du papier \u00e0 musique par les deux ailes du m\u00eame parti unique, donc r\u00e9pondant au but de Ron Paul.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tIl y a aussi le myst\u00e8re d’un effet psychologique possible. La personnalit\u00e9 unique de Ron Paul, ses propositions politiques radicales, le comportement assez chaotique de la presse-Syst\u00e8me vis-\u00e0-vis de lui, \u00e9cartant d’une part toute possibilit\u00e9 qu’il soit d\u00e9sign\u00e9 comme candidat r\u00e9publicain mais continuant \u00e0 faire une place importante \u00e0 son discours critiques, tout cela pourrait amener \u00e0 des r\u00e9actions peut-\u00eatre surprenantes le jour o\u00f9 il annoncerait sa candidature ind\u00e9pendante, s’il se d\u00e9cidait dans ce sens. Une dynamique nouvelle pourrait se cr\u00e9er, renfor\u00e7ant celle qui existe d\u00e9j\u00e0.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tIl faut noter que Ron Paul commence \u00e0 appuyer publiquement sur la position belliciste du GOP, comme une recette assur\u00e9e de perdre les \u00e9lections, pour le parti r\u00e9publicain Paul n’h\u00e9site plus \u00e0 d\u00e9signer le GOP comme le War Party<\/em> (sur RAW Story<\/em> le 13 mars 2012<\/a>), et on se demande alors si Ron Paul lui-m\u00eame peut envisager encore d’y avoir sa place<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00abTexas Rep. Ron Paul warned his fellow Republican presidential candidates on Tuesday that they risked losing to President Barack Obama if they did not reconsider their foreign policy. They want more war than Obama, he said on CNBC. I think Obama wants way too much. He’s ready to go into Syria under the U.N. resolutions, flaunting the responsibility to ask Congress.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\t\u00bbHowever, Obama was still upstaging Republicans in the public’s eye, according to Paul. He has once again become the peace candidate, he’s won the Nobel prize and at the same time he promotes wars, so he is going to get away with something because right now the Republicans are going to be the war party, Paul explained. They’re going to be the John McCain party and this is the reason that Obama won before. I think the Republicans have fallen into the trap because now they’re the war party and they support, you know, the Patriot Act, the invasion of our houses, the TSA and all of these things. That’s what the young people and independents do not like and I think they’re setting the stage for a difficult time in the fall.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tSi Ron Paul constate cela de plus en plus publiquement, parlant finalement d’un GOP allant aux \u00e9lections sans lui, comme si lui-m\u00eame n’\u00e9tait plus partie prenante des pr\u00e9sidentielles, signifie-t-il qu’il reconna\u00eet implicitement sa d\u00e9faite, ou plus simplement l’impossibilit\u00e9 qu’il soit jamais d\u00e9sign\u00e9 ? Ou bien, signifie-t-il qu’il n’a plus rien de commun avec ce parti r\u00e9publicain-l\u00e0, et qu’il va accepter la logique de Raimondo qui le pousse vers une candidature ind\u00e9pendante ?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tIl semble que l’id\u00e9e d’une candidature ind\u00e9pendante de Ron Paul soit de plus en plus souvent \u00e9voqu\u00e9e par divers commentateurs et personnalit\u00e9s, d’ailleurs pas n\u00e9cessairement du camp id\u00e9ologique th\u00e9orique de Ron Paul mais attir\u00e9s par sa politique, souvent \u00e0 titre individuel. D’autre part, les activit\u00e9s autant que les sites des partisans de Ron Paul montrent que la mobilisation ne faiblit pas malgr\u00e9 les revers des primaires, mais, certes, que cette mobilisation est de plus en plus hostile au parti r\u00e9publicain et de plus en plus tourn\u00e9e vers une candidature ind\u00e9pendante.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\tRon Paul approche \u00e0 grands pas de son Rubicon, du moment o\u00f9 il devra d\u00e9cider, le d\u00e9lai raisonnable pour une candidature ind\u00e9pendante dans quelque structure que ce soit \u00e9tant mai-juin. Tr\u00e8s vite, le dilemme se r\u00e9sumera, pour lui et pour ses id\u00e9es, \u00e0 ceci : a-t-il encore quelque chose \u00e0 perdre \u00e0 abandonner le parti r\u00e9publicain ?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\tMis en ligne le 15 mars 2012 \u00e0 04H07<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ron Paul, o\u00f9 en est-il ? Sa position est \u00e0 la fois incertaine, bizarre et extraordinaire. De plus en plus, il appara\u00eet que Ron Paul est prisonnier du parti r\u00e9publicain (le GOP) bien plus qu’il ne le tient en otage, comme il l’esp\u00e9rait. Les fraudes, ill\u00e9galit\u00e9s, manipulations du GOP contre lui, pour qu’il ne puisse… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[10239,7314,6813,5623,3140,4337,3686,3310,12833],"class_list":["post-74576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bloc-notes","tag-fraudes","tag-gop","tag-independant","tag-parti","tag-paul","tag-raimondo","tag-republicain","tag-ron","tag-rubicon"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74576\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}