Sharmine Narwani, experte des questions du Moyen-Orient et Senior Associate au St. Antony’s College de l’universit\u00e9 d’Oxford, suit avec attention la crise syrienne. Pour elle, l’affaire appara\u00eet tranch\u00e9e et le bloc BAO est sur la voie de perdre la partie. Dans un article publi\u00e9 d’abord le 21 mars 2012<\/a> dans Al Ahram<\/em>, elle expose son analyse de la situation, d\u00e9crit le bourbier et l’impasse o\u00f9 se trouvent les am\u00e9ricanistes-occidentalistes avec une opposition de plus en plus divis\u00e9e et discr\u00e9dit\u00e9e, et surtout infiltr\u00e9e de plus en plus clairement par des groupes islamistes extr\u00eamement dangereux ; et, d’autre part, une Russie de plus en plus affirm\u00e9e comme ma\u00eetresse du jeu, pr\u00f4nant une solution n\u00e9goci\u00e9e sans les habituelles exigences pr\u00e9alables du type regime change<\/em> et assurant ainsi, de facto<\/em>, la protection du r\u00e9gime Assad. Le tournant de la situation en Syrie a \u00e9t\u00e9, selon Narwani, la nomination de Kofi Annan<\/a> comme n\u00e9gociateur de l’ONU<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe first clear-cut public sign of this new phase was the appointment of Kofi Annan as UN envoy to Syria. Annan is an American concession that will draw out this dealmaking phase between the Syrian government, opposition figures, and foreign governments potentially until the May 2012 parliamentary elections. This phase is what the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and other BRIC countries have sought from the start: the creation of a protective bubble around Syria so that it has the time and space necessary to implement domestic reforms that will not harm its geopolitical priorities.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbDealmaking and dialogue can be seen everywhere suddenly. Annan is only a figurehead masking these multilateral efforts. Reports are coming in that the US has kept a steady dialogue with the Syrian regime throughout. Opposition religious figures mostly Muslim Brotherhood in their day-job guises have met with the regime in recent weeks. And prominent Syrian reformists who reject military action and are open to dialogue with the regime are now being sought out by various European governments.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe European Union kicked things off in March in a joint foreign ministerial communiqu\u00e9 rejecting military intervention in Syria. This was swiftly followed by Kofi Annan’s strong warning against external efforts to arm the Syrian opposition, with various Americans making similar sounds in his wake.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbOne very prominent Syrian reformist who has remained engaged with both sides of this conflict confided that the externally-based Syrian opposition are now looking over each other’s shoulders none yet dares to speak out. The fact is, says the source, they are getting military assistance, but nowhere near enough. They need much, much more than what they are getting, and now the countries backing this opposition are developing conflicting agendas. Three high-level defections from the opposition Syrian National Council were announced within days of that conversation, hinting further at the fundamental policy shifts occurring in all circles, behind the scenes.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe game has changed along Syria’s borders too. Turkey, a ferocious critic of the Assad government this past year, is reconsidering its priorities. A participant in a recent closed meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reveals the emptiness of Turkish threats to form a humanitarian corridor or security zone on their Syrian border. Davutoglu, says my source, insisted in private that Turkey will not do anything to harm Syria’s territorial integrity and unity because that will transfer the conflict into Turkish territory.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbRecent deliberations with Iran also seem to have resonated with the Turks. During Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi’s January visit to Ankara, a source tells me that an understanding was reached. The Iranian FM is said to have warned Turkish leaders that they were leveraging a lot of goodwill painstakingly built up in the Muslim\/Arab world in return for no clear benefit in Syria. According to my source, the Turks were encouraged to strike a bargain to regain their regional standing the key concession being that Assad would stay through the reform period.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n