\tM K Bhadrakumar, un de nos commentateurs favoris pour la transversale Inde-Russie, avec n\u00e9cessairement des tangentes vers le Moyen-Orient, nous assure que la Russie est sur la voie de l’emporter en Syrie, avec des avanc\u00e9es significatives de sa politique. Il n’en est manifestement pas m\u00e9content.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tM K Bhadrakumar met en \u00e9vidence que Koffi Annan et les d\u00e9tachements de l’ONU donnent des avis plus optimistes. Annan parle de n\u00e9gociations secr\u00e8tes entre le pouvoir et l’opposition, ce qui va dans le sens de la politique suscit\u00e9e et constamment soutenue par la Russie. Un autre \u00e9l\u00e9ment important est l’effacement confirm\u00e9 des USA (campagne pr\u00e9sidentielle) et l’effacement temporaire de la France avec peut-\u00eatre une orientation diff\u00e9rente (\u00e9lection du pr\u00e9sident Hollande). Plus int\u00e9ressantes encore, les indications que donne M K Bhadrakumar sur les positions de la Turquie et de l’Arabie Saoudite. (Dans Russia & India Report<\/em>, le 4 mai 2012<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00ab Russian diplomacy on the Syrian crisis appears to be gaining traction steadily. The Foreign Ministry statement in Moscow earlier today gave encouraging estimation of the ground situation in Syria.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbWhat matters most is that the UN joint envoy Kofi Annan himself has just evaluated that the six-point peace plan is on track. Annan’s spokesman disclosed that under-the-radar’ negotiations have been going on with the Syrian protagonists and there are small signs of compliance. Equally, the head of the UN observer team in Syria has evaluated that he saw a good chance and an opportunity to break the cycle of violence. Of course, detractors are galore, too, but then, there is a psywar’ and a geopolitical struggle going on over Syria.<\/em> []<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbWhat gives cautious optimism is also that Turkey has been retreating’. Notably, FM Ahmet Davitoglu has retracted from his rhetoric . He probably sensed that he crossed a red line and there has been adverse reaction in the Arab world, which is historically very sensitive about the Ottoman legacy. Besides, within Turkey itself, the government’s Syria policy has come under heavy fire. A Turkish intervention in Syria can be safely ruled out in the absence of a national consensus within Turkey.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAny regular reader of Saudi press would also vouchsafe that there is a lowering of the rhetoric on Syria, which used to be shrill. Riyadh has turned attention to other issues, especially the diplomatic crisis with Egypt, which comes as a big embarrassment to Saudi standing in the region. Asharq Al-Alawsat, in particular, has ceased to carry scurrilous pieces often in very bad taste on the Syrian leadership, which used to be a daily feature for months altogether. The deep soul-searching by Turkey and it has the requisite intellectual resources to apply will further dampen the Saudi enthusiasm for regime change’ in Syria.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbOn the whole, although the Syrian situation remains volatile, it appears that the Russian diplomatic strategy is beginning to show results. Indeed, the circumstances also could be favoring. Thus, Nikolas Sarkozy’s likely defeat on Sunday would put another nail on the coffin of the Friends of Syria’. And, of course, Barack Obama is rolling up his sleeves this weekend for a tough re-election bid through the coming 6-month period, which would leave him little time to ponder over Syria’s future.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \n dedefensa.org<\/em><\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" La Russie en train de gagner en Syrie? M K Bhadrakumar, un de nos commentateurs favoris pour la transversale Inde-Russie, avec n\u00e9cessairement des tangentes vers le Moyen-Orient, nous assure que la Russie est sur la voie de l’emporter en Syrie, avec des avanc\u00e9es significatives de sa politique. Il n’en est manifestement pas m\u00e9content. M K… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[929,5474,4346,2786,2697,2730,3867,2613],"class_list":["post-74690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-annan","tag-bhadrakumar","tag-k","tag-m","tag-negociations","tag-russie","tag-syrie","tag-turquie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74690"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74690\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}