\tApr\u00e8s une semaine de confusion depuis l’annonce que Ron Paul arr\u00eate la comp\u00e9tition des primaires pour les votes populaires, la situation n’est pas vraiment \u00e9claircie mais le sentiment g\u00e9n\u00e9ral que nous en retirons est que Ron Paul reste dans la comp\u00e9tition, \u00e0 sa fa\u00e7on, bien entendu Tout cela contribue \u00e0 faire de cette campagne pour la nomination r\u00e9publicaine pour les pr\u00e9sidentielles, dans le climat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral qu’on conna\u00eet, un \u00e9v\u00e9nement sans aucun doute exceptionnel. Nous dirions m\u00eame que cette incertitude, qui est embarrassante au moins pour un moment, pour nous observateurs ext\u00e9rieurs, l’est bien plus, et d’une fa\u00e7on bien plus prolong\u00e9e, pour les comp\u00e9titeurs, notamment le camp Romney, voir le parti r\u00e9publicain (GOP) lui-m\u00eame, dans ses hautes et sages instances, voire enfin le monde politique washingtonien du Syst\u00e8me.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tNous avions indiqu\u00e9 dans un pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent article (le15 mai 2012<\/a> ) qu’une r\u00e9action circonstanci\u00e9e de Justin Raimondo serait une bonne indication. Un lecteur<\/a> nous avait fait part d’une br\u00e8ve communication de Raimondo sur la mailing list<\/em> d’Antiwar.com<\/em> : \u00abRon may be slowing down his campaign while still making a strenuous effort at the local level to garner delegates but we sure as heck aren’t slowing down ours. Our campaign for a more peaceful, rational foreign policy continues<\/em>\u00bb Le message \u00e9tait de pure forme, sans gu\u00e8re de signification Un article, le 18 mai 2012<\/a>, toujours sur Antiwar.com<\/em>, va beaucoup plus loin.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe key tactical question is this: will the Establishment even allow Paul’s name to be placed in nomination? GOP rules requires that, in order to do so, the Paul camp must have a plurality of the delegates in at least five states. Given the series of Paul victories at the local level, one would think this threshold has already been reached but that’s not at all clear, given two factors. The first is that, in some states where the Paulians took control of the proceedings, many of those delegates legally bound to vote for Romney on the first ballot are actually Paul supporters. If they rebel in Tampa, however, there’s no telling what might happen. There seems to be no rule forbidding them from abstaining on the first ballot, and that, in itself, would be a very visible and powerful protest precisely the sort of dissent the Romneyites justifiably fear.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe second factor is the attitude of the Romney camp. Relatively good personal relations between Romney and Paul to the contrary notwithstanding, top officials in the Romney campaign are reportedly taking a hard line against the Paulians and are disinclined to allow Paul to even be nominated from the floor. Although by the time the party convenes in Tampa Romney will presumably attain the magic number of delegates required for nomination, even the formality of allowing opposition to manifest itself during the proceedings could cause a stampede like a bank run. Conservatives have been very reluctant to get on the Romney bandwagon and make their peace with the Flip-Flopper, and the sight of open resistance could be the spark that sets off a prairie fire. You can’t blame them for not wanting to take that chance which is why I believe the anti-Paul hard-liners in the Romney camp will prevail over the more reasonable types who don’t want to unduly alienate the Paulistas. Forget the formal rules, forget parliamentary procedure the Romneyites are ready to throw out the rule book and take organizational measures against the last gasp of dissent within the party.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbIf that happens if the Romneyites lock out the Paul people, and refuse to permit Ron’s name to be entered in nomination there is going to be trouble in Tampa. Given the security arrangements, and the volatile atmosphere, it won’t take much for the GOP Establishment to play their favorite trump card: brute force. They’ve done it at several Republican state conventions, when the Paulians turned out in such numbers as to constitute a majority, and they certainly won’t hesitate to do so on the national stage.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbI don’t envy the Paul delegates. Given the highly militarized security being prepared for the convention, Tampa will be swarming with cops, Homeland Security thugs, and private agents provocateurs, all just itching for an incident a defining moment, if you will that will frame the Paulians as kooky disruptors and assert Romney’s hegemony over the party in a symbolic and violent way. I wouldn’t be surprised if even the act of wearing a Paul button is grounds for harassing delegates and their guests. Anyone who acts or looks out of place, who isn’t wearing a suit and tie and exhibits other tell-tale signs of not having the correct political leanings is bound to find themselves under intense scrutiny, and worse.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbRon Paul’s revolution has been so successful because the GOP Establishment it is fighting is intellectually bankrupt and politically hollow: the neoconservatives who dominate the party’s \u00ab\u00a0idea shop\u00a0\u00bb are basically hostile to the radical anti-government elements on the rise in the GOP, and Romney has zero grassroots support. This is why the Paulians have been able to easily overwhelm the party Establishment at the level of local and state conventions. What makes the Romneyites hopping mad is that the genuine passion generated by the Paul movement underscores the utter emptiness of their candidate and the party apparatus. That the Romney campaign has had to resort to fraud ballot-box stuffing, distributing phony lists of delegate slates, abruptly adjourning when they’re outnumbered has been amply documented by Paul’s supporters: this particularly riles the Romneyites because it shows the lack of character in their candidate and his campaign.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbEager to get on to the main business of seizing power from Barack Obama, the Romney people are impatient with this business of party democracy and they can be expected to short circuit the rules in order to brush Paul and his supporters aside. As I said above: there’s going to be<\/em> trouble in Tampa<\/em><\/strong> not only outside the fortress-like compound in which the proceedings will take place, on the streets, where protesters of every stripe are expected in full force, but<\/em> in the inner sanctum itself<\/em><\/strong>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbWith all this drama building to a crescendo in August, Ron Paul is taking the long view he’s said this at every turn. What Romney’s strategists, the media, and the party Establishment don’t get is that what they’re dealing with here is not a political campaign but a political movement. Campaigns culminate in either victory or defeat: they have a beginning, a middle, and an end. Ideological movements, on the other hand, develop over a longer period of time, and evolve in response to changing circumstances<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tCe long extrait tourne, on le comprend, autour d’un seul th\u00e8me : quoi qu’il en soit des affirmations, des pr\u00e9cautions, des interrogations, des interventions contradictoires, il s’av\u00e8re bien que le mouvement de fond des pauliens, qui passe par la conqu\u00eate d’un grand nombre de si\u00e8ges de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s \u00e0 la convention du GOP, \u00e0 Tampa, se poursuit et donne des r\u00e9sultats importants. (Le mouvement se poursuit d’une fa\u00e7on r\u00e9guli\u00e8re et affirm\u00e9e. Le 19 mai 2012<\/a>, le site TwinCities.com<\/em>, du Minnesota, indiquait que les partisans de Ron Paul avaient compl\u00e9t\u00e9 leur victoire en nombre de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s dans cet \u00c9tat : 12 des 13 si\u00e8ges de d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s sont all\u00e9s \u00e0 des partisans de Ron Paul, compl\u00e9tant le total du Minnesota pour la convention \u00e0 32 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s pauliens sur les 40 d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s du Minnesota. Yahoo<\/em> donne, le 20 mai 2012<\/a>, des pr\u00e9cisions plus g\u00e9n\u00e9rales sur tous les fronts, allant de le m\u00eame sens.) Raimondo poursuit son analyse en observant que le GOP va se battre de toutes ses forces et par tous les moyens<\/strong> contre l’affirmation de cette repr\u00e9sentation, et que les d\u00e9l\u00e9gu\u00e9s pauliens ne sont pas pr\u00eats \u00e0 se laisser faire. D’o\u00f9 cette affirmation de Raimondo, rep\u00e9r\u00e9e \u00e0 plusieurs reprises : il va y avoir du grabuge \u00e0 Tampa.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tCette id\u00e9e se retrouve dans nombre de commentaires sur les sites Ron Paul, essentiellement ceux qui, ind\u00e9pendants, ne d\u00e9pendent pas directement de la campagne RP. Il semble de plus en plus assur\u00e9 que le mouvement n\u00e9 autour de Ron Paul prend une allure de plus en plus autonome, et que son but est effectivement d’assurer une action extr\u00eamement ferme pour parvenir \u00e0 s’affirmer. Comme le sugg\u00e8re Raimondo, la violence n’est pas exclue du programme, et c’est Tampa, o\u00f9 se tiendra la convention du GOP, qui sera le grand centre d’int\u00e9r\u00eat et le point d’extr\u00eame tension du processus.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n