Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis<\/em> de Douba\u00ef, dans les \u00c9mirats arabes Unis).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tSon chapeau d’introduction nous instruit de l’essentiel, c’est-\u00e0-dire le r\u00f4le discret mais pr\u00e9pond\u00e9rant de la Russie dans la crise du Levant dans sa phase actuelle, l’accord des Russes et des Saoudiens, aux d\u00e9pens des USA que, d\u00e9cid\u00e9ment, l’Arabie n’a d\u00e9sormais plus l’air de porter dans son cur, comme la Russie, certes … \u00abA flurry of diplomatic activity is occurring between Riyadh and Moscow over not only Iraq but Syria. Russia is seeking to play the role of negotiator on all questions and Saudi Arabia holds the keys. If successful, Russia stands to gain substantially at the expense of the United States. The Kingdom engagement policy with the Russians may indeed produce peace dividends and further alter the geopolitical landscape.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n\tQui croit que la Russie est paralys\u00e9e par son flanc ukrainien et ne figure pas dans la crise du Levant, celui-l\u00e0 doit revenir sur ce jugement. Selon le Dr. Karasik, Russes et Saoudiens s’entendent comme larrons en foire, aussi bien sur la portion irakienne que sur la portion syrienne de la crise du Levant. Lavrov est partout dans la r\u00e9gion en ce moment, activant la diplomatie russe pour la faire correspondre \u00e0 celle de l’Arabie … Dans tous les cas, la version du Dr. Karasik, qui doit avoir l’accord des Saoudiens si l’on en croit les diverses r\u00e9f\u00e9rences mentionn\u00e9es, est int\u00e9ressante \u00e0 conna\u00eetre.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\t\u00abThe Kingdom and the Kremlin agreed to return to the Geneva 1 process which is to find a political transition in Syria. This is a significant development that signals that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s election on June 3 for another term is cemented as Russia wants and which Riyadh now appears to see as critical for Syria’s stability. Iran will be happy with this outcome because their efforts supporting Assad with military and financial aid are paying off. Iran is close to the Kremlin, and Russia will be able to negotiate between Riyadh and Tehran in a way to please both parties in the Syrian outcome. Time will tell what that political transition will look like.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbISIS’s tidal wave in Iraq played right into Kremlin arguments about how the failures of global color revolutions led by the American-Atlantist Community wreck countries and leave them wide open to terrorist infiltration. Russia’s fresh diplomatic offensive is based on the new conceptual, doctrinal outlook from Moscow and is now being presented to the Saudis as a reason for the Levant’s woes and especially the unfolding catastrophic debacle in Iraq. The Kingdom seems to be buying the argument, and well they should, based on Riyadh’s distrust of America. ISIS’s activity in Iraq is reminding the Saudis how opposed they were to American invasion and occupation of Iraq. Consequently, the events are giving the Kingdom a ground-hog day moment according to an Arab official.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbDuring their meeting in Jeddah, Lavrov and Saud also said efforts should be made to maintain the integrity of Iraq and the unity of all the components of the Iraqi people, who should benefit from equality of rights and duties. Clearly this is a signal that the Kingdom and the Kremlin want to find a middle ground for Iraqi state stability while at the same time finding a possible solution to the leadership crisis in Baghdad. According to an Arab official, Riyadh and Moscow agree that Ayad Allawi is the best candidate to run Iraq as he has had close ties to Kingdom and Kremlin in the past. In addition, the key is Assad: All sides now see that Assad and the stability of Syria is now key and is part of the deal to getting Alawi into power in Baghdad. Clearly, the Saudis see the Russians are able to exercise their good ties with Iran and Iraqi Shiites to accept Allawi.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bbAlso of critical importance during this sequence of events is King Abdullah’s visit to Egypt. This visit to Egypt to support Egyptian President Sisi is full of significance and importance because Saudi Arabia sees Egypt as the core of the Middle East.<\/em> […] Moscow’s support for Egypt is also at play and taken together, the Kingdom and the Kremlin see eye to eye across the region. As such, this cooperation may be acceptable to Iran since such activity does not hurt the Islamic Republics interestsat least for the time being given the threat of Sunni extremists.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n\t\u00bb… Overall, Saudi Arabia is acting quickly to help resolve regional security issue. Russia sees her historical mission coming to fruition by rushing into the debacle of the Levant and coming up with solutions that will perhaps firmly place the Near East within Moscow’s orbit and influence. The move is smart and timely. As such the status and prospects for the Saudi-Russian bilateral relationship are growing, and both the Kingdom and the Kremlin stressed their readiness to intensify it, including trade, economic and energy cooperation which has a solid potential for growth. <\/em>[…] Clearly, Riyadh sees Moscow as a future security and economic partner who is an honest broker; much more than other Western powers.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\tMis en ligne le 23 juin 2014 \u00e0 18H11<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
La Russie (avec l’Arabie) au cur de la crise du Levant ? Ne dites plus crise syrienne, crise irakienne (ni\u00e8me version), ou encore crise de l’ISIS (alias DAASH), ou m\u00eame crise du Moyen-Orient ; dites plut\u00f4t crise du Levant, cela fait plus sage, meilleur connaisseur, peut-\u00eatre est-ce plus juste avec un petit air de connivence… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[3259,3228,2628,2651,857,2830,15887,2730,3867],"class_list":["post-75367","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breves-de-crise","tag-arabie","tag-crise","tag-diplomatie","tag-du","tag-irak","tag-lavrov","tag-levant","tag-russie","tag-syrie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75367","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75367"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75367\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75367"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75367"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75367"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}