MK. Bhadrakumar (voir le 31 juillet 2014<\/a>) poursuit son enqu\u00eate furieuse sur la situation entre la Russie et le bloc BAO, apr\u00e8s le dernier train de sanctions d\u00e9cid\u00e9 par les USA et l’Europe. Il constate les premiers effets indirects des sanctions, type-boomerang, avec l’annonce que Moscou cesse d’importer les fruits & l\u00e9gumes polonais (deux tiers de la production polonaise), et alors, s’interroge-t-il, est-ce le pr\u00e9sident Obama qui va compenser le manque \u00e0 gagner des Polonais, qui sont si proches de son cur ? Ou bien Obama va-t-il dire aux Polonais : Pour les compensations, adressez-vous \u00e0 Bruxelles ? \u00abIs a vicious sanctions cycle beginning?<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tEncore n’en est-on qu’aux hors d’uvre. L’un des plats de r\u00e9sistance, c’est l’\u00e9nergie, et tout ce qui va avec… \u00abHowever, in this developing story, all eyes are on the template of the Tier Three sanctions involving transfer of ‘sensitive technologies’ in the oil sector to Russia. The impression conveyed by Obama in his speech on Tuesday while announcing the sanctions is that Russian oil exploration and oil production will be badly hit. But Reuters has different story to tell in an insightful analysis on the state of play in the oil market, which suggests that it is a complicated story and Obama may have scored a self-goal.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThe three main conclusions drawn by the Reuters analysis: a) Russia has traditionally depended on Western technology as a matter of convenience, but will now be compelled to take the hard route and develop technologies on its own, which will only incrementally lead to an erosion of the West’s existing monopoly over such technology; b) China in particular will cash in on the situation and may turn out to be a wholesome winner here ultimately, and, c) The Russia sanctions may well come to signify the end of the West’s technology leadership in the oil sector.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbCuriously, oil experts have also questioned the basis of Obama’s hype. Let me quote at some length the expert opinion at the respected Peak Oil News: The foreign policy wonks at the State Department may not understand that Russian oil production has just hit a post-USSR peak and will be declining anyway. The effect of the<\/em> [US-EU<\/em>] sanctions will be to speed the Russian decline, forcing up world oil prices as soon as US tight oil maxes out and goes into its inevitable nosedive in the 2017-2010 time frame. Russia, which will still be an oil exporter then, will benefit from higher prices (perhaps nearly enough to compensate for the loss of production resulting from the sanctions). But the US, which will still be one of the world’s top oil importers, will face a re-run of the 2008 oil shock that contributed to its financial crash.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbNo doubt State Department policy experts sincerely believe the recent hype about America as a new energy superpower capable of supplying Europe with oil and gas to replace Russia’s exports. Maybe the Europeans are foolish enough to have fallen for this delusion as well. But these will prove to be ruinous high-stakes bets. One can only hope that all the players will stir from these hallucinations before the game turns really ugly.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbQuite obviously, the Europeans are not foolish. They put their foot down and insisted that Russian gas must be exempted from the sanctions package Obama proposed. The point is, European economies simply cannot do without Russian gas. Arguably, the shoe is on the other foot today. Will Russia retaliate by cutting off gas to Europe? Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that Moscow might choose such an option. Hmmm. Getting goose bumps? To my mind, however, there is no need to fear that. For one thing, the income from gas exports to Europe is good money for Russia, and, secondly, Moscow understands perfectly well that the major European countries except Britain, perhaps really don’t have their heart in what the thug is pressing them to do, but have gone along only because blood is, after all, thicker than water.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbThis also seems to be Moscow’s understanding of the matrix. The most detailed Russian reaction to the Tier Three sanctions has come from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at a media briefing in Moscow on Tuesday. Lavrov gave a cogent, lengthy resume of what really is going on behind the shadow play over Ukraine, underscoring that the US is deliberately calibrating the tensions by torpedoing all incipient peace tracks. He disclosed that Russia’s European partners have privately conveyed to Moscow their own misgivings about Obama’s game plan. Lavrov assessed in measured words that the European attitudes on sanctions against Russia are artificial.<\/em>\u00bb <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tArtificiel, sans doute le mot est-il assez appropri\u00e9 pour d\u00e9finir l’attitude de tels ou tels Europ\u00e9ens approuvant la d\u00e9cision de nouvelles sanctions-UE. Le probl\u00e8me est que, jusqu’ici, c’est tout le processus europ\u00e9en concernant cette crise qui est, du point de vue de la politique, marqu\u00e9 de la plus compl\u00e8te artificialit\u00e9, avec l’essentiel de l’initiative laiss\u00e9 aux pressions constantes de l’op\u00e9rationnalit\u00e9 bureaucratique des institutions europ\u00e9ennes, et \u00e0 celles du syst\u00e8me de la communication (tout cela, beaucoup plus efficace que les pressions US) ; par cons\u00e9quent, les sanctions sont prises, elles ne sont pas artificielles et c’est bien \u00e0 partir d’elles que la situation \u00e9volue. La question est de savoir si l’un ou l’autre dirigeant du bloc BAO (de l’UE) voudra et\/ou pourra rompre cette artificialit\u00e9. (Bhadrakumar cite les tractations secr\u00e8tes entre Allemands et Russes, selon The Independent<\/em> [voir notre texte du 31 juillet 2014<\/a>], bien entendu cat\u00e9goriquement d\u00e9menties par Berlin, et bloqu\u00e9es, selon le quotidien britannique, par la crise du Vol MH17.)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \tMis en ligne le 2 ao\u00fbt 2014 \u00e0 16H03<\/p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sanctions, aller-retour MK. Bhadrakumar (voir le 31 juillet 2014) poursuit son enqu\u00eate furieuse sur la situation entre la Russie et le bloc BAO, apr\u00e8s le dernier train de sanctions d\u00e9cid\u00e9 par les USA et l’Europe. Il constate les premiers effets indirects des sanctions, type-boomerang, avec l’annonce que Moscou cesse d’importer les fruits & l\u00e9gumes polonais… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21],"tags":[2748,15961,5474,2623,398,2830,15927,2730,1296],"class_list":["post-75438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breves-de-crise","tag-allemagne","tag-arificiel","tag-bhadrakumar","tag-bureaucratie","tag-europe","tag-lavrov","tag-mh17","tag-russie","tag-ukraine"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75438","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75438"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75438\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75438"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75438"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75438"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}