\tAvec notre commentateur-ex-diplomate-indien M.K. Bhadrakumar, c’est toujours selon… Un jour o\u00f9 il ne peut cacher une esp\u00e8ce de fascination pour la puissance US qu’il juge, en bon diplomate, g\u00e9n\u00e9ratrice d’ordre ; un jour (les bons jours, certes) o\u00f9 il retrouve sa verve railleuse et antiam\u00e9ricaniste devant les \u00e9normit\u00e9s am\u00e9ricanistes. L’article du 21 juillet 2015<\/a> est du bon cru, celui des bons jours, o\u00f9 M.K. se paye le scalp des US, dans leurs habituelles entreprises de propagande extr\u00eamement grossi\u00e8res, charg\u00e9es jusqu’\u00e0 la gueule de bels et bons dollars…<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tMais le cas est int\u00e9ressant pour lui-m\u00eame, par ailleurs, et Bhadrakumar nous apporte l\u00e0-dessus une lumi\u00e8re bienvenue. Il d\u00e9crit une offensive de propagande, ce qu’il qualifie de puissant (plut\u00f4t que magistral) complot de propagande (\u00aba masterly propaganda ploy<\/em>\u00bb). Bien, les strat\u00e8ges am\u00e9ricanistes en communication viennent de d\u00e9couvrir que l’OCS (Organisation de Coop\u00e9ration de Shanghai) a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de s’\u00e9largir en incorporant dans ses rangs l’Inde et le Pakistan ; on annonce la chose depuis bien deux ans, mais bon, ils la r\u00e9alisent aujourd’hui, selon la rapidit\u00e9 courante de leurs jugements qu’on mesure \u00e0 l’int\u00e9r\u00eat qu’ils portent \u00e0 tout ce qui n’est pas les USA, et les voil\u00e0 en mode-panique. Ils montent aussit\u00f4t leur \u00abmasterly propaganda ploy<\/em>\u00bb, qui consiste \u00e0 tenter de regrouper les petits pays membres de l’OCS, quatre r\u00e9publiques-stan<\/em> de l’Asie Centrale (Kazakhstan, Kirghizistan, Tadjikistan, Ouzb\u00e9kistan), pour qu’ils r\u00e9criminent contre l’entr\u00e9e de l’Inde et du Pakistan dans l’OCS, au pr\u00e9texte que cet acte \u00e9tablit un d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre de puissance (quatre grands pays, puissances nucl\u00e9aires, etc., et les quatre petits-stan<\/em>), voire m\u00eame qu’ils bloquent le processus… Ce rassemblement se fait au niveau de la communication, et Bhadrakumar d\u00e9crit un s\u00e9minaire pr\u00e9cipitamment rassembl\u00e9 sous l’\u00e9gide de RFE\/RL, le 17 juillet 2015<\/a>…<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe American participants claimed that Uzbek president Islam Karimov was manifestly unhappy about the SCO decision to induct India and Pakistan as members and conveyed his misgivings openly, and other Central Asian presidents avoided making such comments, but that must have been on their minds also. An American pundit pontificated, now with the addition of India and Pakistan I think there’s a fear among some of the Central Asian countries that some of their voice and some of their decision-making will also be lost.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbWhereupon, another pundit promptly chipped in, With India and Pakistan, now there’s four huge countries, nuclear powers, and four relatively poor and small and not-so-powerful Central Asian countries, so I think that there’s legitimate concern that<\/em> [Central Asian members<\/em>] would be outweighed in SCO decision-making. The RFERL adds, It is easy to see why the Central Asians could be worried. It estimated that it is the Kremlin which is getting India and Pakistan on board as fellow members in the SCO and the timing was good for Russia. Indeed, it saw a congruence of interests between Moscow and Beijing on this issue, too…<\/em> […]<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbEven more fascinating is the commentary in the website of Eurasianet, a sister publication of the RFERL. It says Karimov actually sounded a word of caution on the SCO’s expansion, saying it would not only change the political map, but would change the balance of power. This is not a simple issue, and it needs to be discussed. It speculated wistfully that considering that SCO chairmanship has now passed to Tashkent, there might still be a miss between the cup and the lip for India…<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbAnd one official think tank scholar in Astana suggested that the planned expansion could be blocked. De jure, the process has yet to be fully clarified. It is quite possible that an existing SCO member could block their entry, said Sanat Kushkumbayev, deputy director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, in an interview with the website Russia Direct. Karimov noted with good reason that the entry of nuclear India and Pakistan to the SCO could change the balance of power inside the organization and internationally. There are many unresolved issues between Delhi and Islamabad, and how this will square with the SCO’s declared spirit of cooperation is unclear.<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tMK Bhadrakumar pr\u00e9sente ce cas sp\u00e9cifique RFE\/RL comme le signe incontestable de cette panique qui a saisi les USA, \u00e0 voir l’Inde et le Pakistan rejoindre essentiellement la Russie et la Chine au sein de l’OCS. Il d\u00e9crit cet \u00e9v\u00e8nement comme une d\u00e9faite majeure des USA, dans tous les cas certainement dans la perception des USA qui ne sont pourtant gu\u00e8re intervenus pour tenter de contrecarre ce processus. Au reste, c’est effectivement le cas, les USA n’ont quasiment pas signal\u00e9 ni encore moins critiqu\u00e9 les projets d’\u00e9largissement massif de l’OCS, alors que l’affaire \u00e9tait, comme on l’a vu, planifi\u00e9e au su et au vu de tout le monde.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \tIl s’agit, l\u00e0 encore, de cette sorte d’autisme des USA pour des \u00e9v\u00e8nements en pr\u00e9paration, qu’ils ne parviennent pas \u00e0 pr\u00e9venir d\u00e8s lors qu’il s’agit d’\u00e9v\u00e8nements qui leur sont potentiellement d\u00e9favorables. Tout se passe comme s’ils n’arrivaient pas \u00e0 croire, dans une belle d\u00e9monstration d’ind\u00e9fectibilit\u00e9<\/a> de leur psychologie, qu’on p\u00fbt pr\u00e9parer quelque chose qui leur serait d\u00e9favorable, simplement parce qu’ils ne peuvent pas concevoir que l’on puisse ne pas se contenter de se conformer \u00e0 leurs prescriptions strat\u00e9giques \u00e9videmment h\u00e9g\u00e9moniques, et que l’on puisse tout simplement les d\u00e9fier par cons\u00e9quent, puisque ne pas rester strictement align\u00e9 absolument sur les USA c’est d\u00e9fier les USA.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00abThe induction of India and Pakistan as full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization<\/em> [SCO] constitutes a severe setback to the United States’ regional strategies. The western analysts have regarded the SCO as the NATO of the East. That the SCO territory is expanding and will include South Asia upsets the US interests profoundly. Arguably, it is possible to co-relate it with the unseemly hurry with which the US is pressuring the GCC states to allow the deployment of a unified missile defence system in the Persian Gulf region…<\/em> […]<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbOf course, the paranoia in the American mind is understandable. The heart of the matter is that the SCO’s expansion is happening against the regional backdrop of sharp decline in the US influence in the Eurasian region.<\/em> <\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbDefying all western propaganda, Russia and China are accelerating their cooperation and coordination of regional policies in Central Asia. Prestigious US think tanks have produced dozens of reports in the recent years, analyzing that there are serious contradictions and conflict of interests between Russia and China that put them at loggerheads in Central Asia. The US analysts often tried to play on Russia’s sensitivities by arguing that China is systematically replacing Russia as the dominant player in Central Asia. Therefore, the decision to integrate the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union project and China’s Belt and Road initiative becomes a defining moment in Eurasian politics. Quite obviously, Moscow and Beijing have a shared interest in rolling back the US-NATO presence in the Eurasian region.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n \t\u00bbDoes it all hark back to Halford Mackinder’s so-called Heartland Theory, which has been a geo-strategic theory that greatly influenced the US’ regional policies toward Eurasia for a century? Yes, an understanding of the Heartland Theory may help grasp these developments in big-power politics in contemporary Central Asia…<\/em>\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n