… Mal, tr\u00e8s mal, merci, et cela va mal car le danger fasciste guette. Ce n’est ni Russia Today<\/em>, ni le Saker<\/em>-US qui nous dit cela, mais rien de moins que Foreign Policy Magazine<\/a><\/em> (du 8 octobre), qui nous est relay\u00e9 par NewColdWar.org<\/a> <\/em>(du 13 octobre). Étonnant article, puisque le prestigieux magazine politique US, un des fleurons de l’establishment<\/em>-Syst\u00e8me, y pr\u00e9sente la situation ukrainienne où la menace d’un coup de force de Pravy Sektor<\/em> et de toute l’extr\u00eame-droite n\u00e9o-nazie plane sur le pays. Du coup, l’on s’\u00e9tonne, comme le fait NewColdWar.org<\/em>, sur le ton d’une ironie un peu lasse, – tiens, Foreign Policy<\/em> \u00ab\u00a0d\u00e9couvre\u00a0\u00bb que l’extr\u00eame-droite est une des composantes du pouvoir en Ukraine, et qu’elle menace \u00e0 chaque instant, et aujourd’hui plus que jamais, de se lancer dans un coup de force qui pourrait conduire \u00e0 l’\u00e9tablissement d’un pouvoir fasciste\/n\u00e9o-nazi au cœur de l’Europe… (« In the following commentary, Foreign Policy magazine ‘discovers’ the existence of a dangerous far-right in Ukraine with lots of guns and no time or interest in hopey talk about ‘European values’ and the like. It has ambitions for political power.<\/em>.. »)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Bien, l’information est int\u00e9ressante, qui nous dit qu’en Ukraine rien n’est fini et que tout peut reprendre du jour au lendemain. Il est \u00e9galement int\u00e9ressant que la chose nous soit rapport\u00e9e, avec un luxe de d\u00e9tails, et un ton du style \u00ab\u00a0mais il est temps que vous vous aperceviez du danger d’extr\u00eame-droite !\u00a0\u00bb, par exemple avertissement surtout destin\u00e9 aux Russes et \u00e0 Poutine, – par un magazine au prestige am\u00e9ricaniste aussi ind\u00e9niable que Foreign Policy Magazine<\/em>. En d’autres temps, avant que le d\u00e9sordre complet ne s’installe en un \u00ab\u00a0tourbillon crisique\u00a0\u00bb g\u00e9n\u00e9ral (disons avant le \u00ab\u00a0coup de Kiev\u00a0\u00bb de f\u00e9vrier 2014), entre d\u00e9terminisme-narrativiste et rappels \u00e9pisodiques d’une v\u00e9rit\u00e9 de situation, un tel article aurait fait sensation. Aujourd’hui, on le consid\u00e8re comme un fait quasi-scientifique de plus que nous sommes bien dans cette p\u00e9riode de \u00ab\u00a0tourbillon crisique\u00a0\u00bb. On fera tout de m\u00eame quelques commentaires \u00e0 partir de cette situation qui pr\u00e9sente divers aspects sp\u00e9cifiques d’une r\u00e9elle \u00e9tranget\u00e9 par rapport aux normes.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n • FP n’est pas le premier magazine am\u00e9ricaniste du genre \u00e0 faire cette sorte d’article tr\u00e8s \u00e9pisodique, mais il s’agit certainement du premier \u00e0 \u00eatre aussi d\u00e9taill\u00e9, aussi structurellement affirmatif, alors que les autres \u00e9taient surtout des reportages. Il d\u00e9taille un contexte dont il n’h\u00e9site pas \u00e0 faire une description apocalyptique, – tant pis pour Porochenko, – pour mieux placer sous une lumi\u00e8re d’autant plus r\u00e9aliste et dramatique un aspect de la situation ukrainienne qui a constamment \u00e9t\u00e9 mis en \u00e9vidence par les Russes durant quinze mois \u00e0 partir du \u00ab\u00a0coup de Kiev\u00a0\u00bb, et chaque fois r\u00e9fut\u00e9 par la presse-Syst\u00e8me du bloc BAO au nom de la culpabilit\u00e9 \u00e9vidente des Russes \u00e0 syst\u00e9matiquement pratiquer l’activit\u00e9 de la propagande. Cela impliquait que, pour le bloc BAO, le \u00ab\u00a0danger fasciste\u00a0\u00bb n’existait pas en Ukraine, et que Pravy Sektor<\/em> \u00e9tait un groupement de type plut\u00f4t-\u00ab\u00a0romantique\u00a0\u00bb (le mot avait \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9crit dans le Washington Post<\/em>) \u00e0 propos duquel aucune pr\u00e9occupation n’\u00e9tait n\u00e9cessaire. Il est par ailleurs dans notre compl\u00e8te conviction qu’un tel article et ce qu’il repr\u00e9sente ne changent rien dans le jugement d\u00e9terministe-narrativiste des experts-Syst\u00e8me que les Russes sont effectivement coupable en tout dans cette affaire, y compris dans leurs accusations \u00e0 propos d’un \u00ab\u00a0danger fasciste\u00a0\u00bb<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n D’ailleurs l’article commence ainsi, en abordant le sujet par une appr\u00e9ciation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale sur la situation ukrainienne : « Ukrainians are seething with anger over the plunging quality of life and the government’s failure to purge the country of oligarchy and corruption, the very issues that ignited the 2013-2014 Maidan uprising in the first place. This is not Kremlin propaganda<\/strong><\/em>. » Et cette affirmation n’est nulle part explicit\u00e9e comme elle devrait l’\u00eatre, sur un point capital : \u00ab\u00a0Puisque ce que nous disons aujourd’hui correspond \u00e0 ce que la ‘propagande russe’ disait et que cela est vrai, c’est donc qu’il n’y avait pas ‘propagande russe’ mais simplement communication russe d’une v\u00e9rit\u00e9 de situation.\u00a0\u00bb C’est un point essentiel \u00e0 retenir, aussi \u00e9trane qu’il paraisse : les affirmations class\u00e9es \u00ab\u00a0propagande russe\u00a0\u00bb sont de la propagande et le reste m\u00eame s’il s’av\u00e8re qu’elles sont vraies. La cat\u00e9gorie \u00ab\u00a0propagande russe\u00a0\u00bb pr\u00e9existe \u00e0 toutes ses productions, et persiste sur toutes ses productions quel que soit le contenu de ces productions, m\u00eame si elles restituent une indubitable \u00ab\u00a0v\u00e9rit\u00e9 de situation\u00a0\u00bb. Le Syst\u00e8me est capable \u00e0 un moment ou l’autre d’\u00e9noncer une \u00ab\u00a0v\u00e9rit\u00e9 de situation\u00a0\u00bb sans en tirer aucune cons\u00e9quence pour tout ce qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 dit \u00e0 ce propos auparavant, et il pr\u00e9servera cette \u00ab\u00a0v\u00e9rit\u00e9 de situation\u00a0\u00bb hors de port\u00e9e de la rubrique \u00ab\u00a0propagande russe\u00a0\u00bb, avec un cloisonnement particuli\u00e8rement herm\u00e9tique<\/strong>, pour conserver toute la puret\u00e9 mal\u00e9fique de la \u00ab\u00a0propagande russe\u00a0\u00bb. Par cons\u00e9quent, si, demain, RT publie l’article de Foreign Policy Magazine<\/em> quasiment dans les m\u00eames termes, il doit \u00eatre entendu que ce sera de la \u00ab\u00a0propagande russe\u00a0\u00bb alors que l’article de FP est \u00e9videmment honorable. Personne ne trouvera rien \u00e0 y redire et les talk-shows<\/em> bourdonneront \u00e0 nouveau.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n • D’autre part, avec cet article, FP prend le contrepied de la vision optimiste Hollande-Merkel type-accord de Minsk2, et cela \u00e0 cause des Ukrainiens et nullement \u00e0 cause des Russes comme c’est l’habitude dans les pouss\u00e9es agressives, ou offensives de communication du bloc BAO. Le FP prend ainsi, encore une fois, le contrepied de l’habituelle narrative<\/em>-BAO, en affirmant que le risque principal pour l’Ukraine se trouve dans la situation int\u00e9rieure et non plus dans la pression expansionniste russe. La seule indication qui serait contraire \u00e0 cette orientation, et qui ne repose sur rien comme c’est conforme au cas g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la russophobie occidentale et anglo-saxonne, c’est la remarque simplement en passant « Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the only one who would love to see the Poroshenko government fail<\/em> », qui reste compl\u00e8tement al\u00e9atoire et hautement discutable : il n’est assur\u00e9 en rien que, dans l’\u00e9tat g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de la situation, Poutine serait satisfait de la chute de Porochenko. Les ultra-nationalistes russes le seraient, certes, par d\u00e9sir de confrontation avec une Ukraine affaiblie et ayant perdu sa cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s des Occidentaux, et c’est ainsi que le FP se retrouve plut\u00f4t sur la m\u00eame ligne que les droitistes souverainistes et mystiques russes, les ennemis les plus d\u00e9clar\u00e9s des USA et du bloc BAO.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n D’un point de vue plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, la derni\u00e8re partie de l’article comprend un appel aux USA pour qu’une aide d’urgence US s’organise pour tenter d’\u00e9viter \u00e0 l’Ukraine la phase crisique majeure que l’auteur, Lev Golinkine, pr\u00e9voit comme une issue pour l’instant in\u00e9vitable. Cet appel montre a contrario<\/em> que la crise ukrainienne a presque compl\u00e8tement disparu des pr\u00e9occupations majeures des USA, au profit de la crise syrienne. Il montre aussi, comme on l’a bien compris, que la crise ukrainienne demeure une dynamique active, comme toutes les crises aujourd’hui, et qu’elle peut par cons\u00e9quent se r\u00e9tablir brusquement dans une phase paroxystique.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n • Au contraire des USA, qui perdent tout int\u00e9r\u00eat pour un th\u00e9\u00e2tre d’op\u00e9ration (une crise) d\u00e8s qu’un autre (la Syrie) les implique directement, les Russes n’ont pas perdu de vue l’Ukraine. Outre les conditions que d\u00e9crit Golinkine, les Russes jugent que la situation de l’Ukraine est promise effectivement \u00e0 connaître de nouvelles aggravations. Il y a effectivement les orientations que d\u00e9crit Grilikine, mais il y a, dans le jugement des Russes surtout la possibilit\u00e9, sinon la probabilit\u00e9<\/strong>, que l’Ukraine va tenter de jouer un r\u00f4le tr\u00e8s actif, sinon d\u00e9terminant esp\u00e8re la direction ukrainienne, dans le prolongement vers la Russie de la crise syrienne que les terroristes islamistes vont essayer de susciter. C’est le seul moyen nouveau et original que la direction ukrainienne envisage pour tenter de ranimer l’int\u00e9r\u00eat de la direction am\u00e9ricaniste pour sa cause, avec le soutien financier esp\u00e9r\u00e9.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n FP ne s’arr\u00eate pas \u00e0 ce point, qui n’a sans doute pas \u00e9t\u00e9 communiqu\u00e9 \u00e0 l’auteur. De toutes les fa\u00e7ons, les principales sources de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 aux USA ne sont plus int\u00e9ress\u00e9es par l’Ukraine et n’imaginent pas une seconde que la crise syrienne puisse les ramener vers l’Ukraine par un biais de cette sorte. Il apparaît probable que les Europ\u00e9ens ignorent \u00e9galement cette possibilit\u00e9 pouvant impliquer la direction ukrainienne dans le terrorisme islamiste en facilitant son transit vers la Russie. De ce point de vue \u00e9galement et de fa\u00e7on plus intense, l’Ukraine reste une crise, latente bien entendu, mais pouvant tr\u00e8s rapidement retrouver son activisme maximal qui ne peut \u00eatre qu’antirusse mais qui am\u00e9nera quelques d\u00e9sillusions de plus au bloc BAO.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n There’s a reason most revolutions in Eastern Europe begin in the winter, from Russia in 1905 to Ukraine’s Maidan in 2013. Once the cold settles in, a government’s empty promises are laid bare. Over the next several days, forecasters are predicting, the temperature in Ukraine will plunge to freezing. When President Petro Poroshenko looks at the thermometer, he should be worried.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Ukrainians are seething with anger over the plunging quality of life and the government’s failure to purge the country of oligarchy and corruption, the very issues that ignited the 2013-2014 Maidan uprising in the first place. This is not Kremlin propaganda. A Washington Post<\/em> article in August spoke of the \u00ab\u00a0sense that last year’s wave of protests delivered little but fresh misery\u00a0\u00bb. A recent Atlantic Council report states that \u00ab\u00a0[i]f the Ukrainian government does not follow through with an ambitious reform agenda, public support for reforms will wane while dissatisfaction will increase, threatening political stability and the country’s successful future.\u00a0\u00bb Even George Soros, a stalwart backer of Kiev, wrote this month that \u00ab\u00a0the general population is increasingly dissatisfied both with the slow speed of reforms and the continued decline in living standards.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n If Ukraine were a stable country, this mounting public disillusionment would manifest itself through an unseating of the ruling party in the next election or perhaps through a referendum of no confidence in the administration. But Ukraine — fresh off a revolution followed by 19 months of war — is far from stable. Its citizens have more weapons than they do trust in their government. If the average Ukrainian can’t scrape together enough money to feed and heat his family in the brutal Ukrainian winter, he will blame Kiev (and the West) and express his outrage not at the polls, but in the streets.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the only one who would love to see the Poroshenko government fail. Ukraine has an active far-right movement composed of ultra-nationalist groups, organizations that combine radical political agendas (with racist and homophobic overtones) with sizable paramilitary formations. Some of these groups, such as Svoboda, began as far-right political parties that were on the margins of Ukraine’s politics before Maidan. Others, like Right Sector, were formed out of paramilitary groups of street fighters that merged into a movement during the uprising. As the war against Russia-backed separatists unfolded, these organizations formed volunteer battalions that proved crucial in containing the separatists.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n As with many things in Ukraine, the far right’s numbers, as well as the extent of Kiev’s control over their battalions, remains nebulous. In July, Right Sector’s Dmytro Yarosh was able to call up around 5,000 members for a march in Kiev, though how many of the participants were fighters as opposed to party supporters is unclear. Likewise, the Azov Battalion, which has been banned from receiving U.S. training and weapons by Congress [sic], has been nominally under Kiev’s control when it comes to fighting separatists; where Azov’s loyalty lies when it comes to facing Kiev is an open question.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n What is clear is that these groups are capable of sowing immense chaos and carnage, as was proved on Aug. 31, when grenade-wielding thugs from Svoboda killed four Ukrainian National Guardsmen and wounded 138 others in front of the parliament building in Kiev. This attack was far from the first time that the far right has threatened Kiev or spilled blood: On July 11, Right Sector was involved in a deadly shootout with police in the western Ukrainian town of Mukacheve, and members of several battalions have threatened a coup after the fighting in the east is concluded.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Up to this point, more or less, the far right and Kiev have shared a common enemy: Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. But as the violence in the eastern regions abates, the ultra-nationalists — including their affiliated (and heavily armed) battalions — are turning their attention inward.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Over the past several months, these groups have been increasingly ratcheting up the pressure on Poroshenko, declaring his administration to be an \u00ab\u00a0internal occupation\u00a0\u00bb and calling, as Right Sector put it, for the \u00ab\u00a0new phase\u00a0\u00bb of the revolution.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Kiev and the far right are at a stalemate. Poroshenko doesn’t have the power to disband the ultra-nationalists (the administration’s response to the Aug. 31 bloodshed has been restricted to a handful of arrests), but the far-right factions aren’t able to openly move on Kiev either. For that, they’ll need to have everyday people protesting in the streets. They need another Maidan.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n This is why two narratives are currently battling each other in Ukraine — across op-eds, social media, and news conferences. Poroshenko is exhorting his compatriots to stay calm and look to the future. The far right, meanwhile, is exploiting frustration and anger amid economic hardships and urging people to take to the streets.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n In September, IMF chief Christine Lagarde wrapped up her visit to Kiev by praising reforms carried out by Ukraine as \u00ab\u00a0astonishing\u00a0\u00bb and urging Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to stay the course. From a big-picture perspective, Lagarde is correct: Kiev’s accomplishments are remarkable [sic] considering that it had inherited a country saddled with debt, paralyzed with corruption, and bleeding from a devastating war with Russian-backed rebels. The fact that Ukraine hasn’t imploded is in itself a testament to both the Ukrainian people and Western aid.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n But the average Ukrainian doesn’t have the luxury of looking at the big picture. Utility tariffs have skyrocketed, as have prices for goods and services and the unemployment rate. The eastern regions are in the middle of a humanitarian crisis, with more than 1.5 million internally displaced people subsisting on the mercy of volunteers and sporadic funding from Kiev’s strained coffers. A July poll showed that only 3 percent of the country is satisfied with the pace of change, while Yatsenyuk, the man responsible for carrying out the IMF’s reforms, has an approval rating of 11 percent.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Each week brings winter closer, making austerity measures such as reduced social services and raised utility fees bite harder. Meanwhile, the far right’s cry will resonate more and more. Perhaps the clearest indicator of this has come from the way in which some of Ukraine’s bigger parties have taken up ultra-nationalist talking points while distancing themselves from Poroshenko. In early September, Oleh Lyashko, the leader of the Radical Party, which officially split from Poroshenko’s coalition, denounced the president as Ukraine’s biggest criminal. Poroshenko’s rival Yulia Tymoshenko went even further, telling the Independent<\/em> that the administration’s unpopular reforms are going to trigger \u00ab\u00a0an uncontrolled uprising that could sweep Ukraine away as a country\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n This is exactly what the far right needs. Groups like Svoboda function best when they can mix in with crowds, presenting themselves as fighters against corruption and injustice; when a crowd is gathered, any imprudent move on the government’s part will be seen as a move against \u00ab\u00a0the people.\u00a0\u00bb Throngs of protesters are the far right’s fuel, and once they are in place, the country has no shortage of explosives.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Under the most optimistic scenario, a far-right uprising would greatly destabilize Ukraine; Poroshenko wouldn’t be able to continue implementing IMF reforms if he were busy fending off an armed insurrection in the middle of Kiev. At worst, this would set off a chain of events that would rapidly turn the country into a fractured, failed state of 45 million people in the middle of Europe.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n To give democratic Ukraine the best chance to survive, Washington must minimize the chances of citizens rising up once winter hits. Statements of solidarity aren’t enough. What’s needed are food, clothing, medicine — tangible, visible, and immediate relief, all stamped with \u00ab\u00a0Courtesy of Kiev and the United States\u00a0\u00bb — to ensure that the people of Ukraine continue to believe that they have a positive future with the West.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n This isn’t a novel idea. During the Cold War, the State Department turned it into an art form. From the Berlin Airlift in 1948 to the Russian-language Voice of America broadcasts beamed into the Soviet Union through the 1980s, the United States has a long history of analyzing the situation on the ground, predicting the needs of the population, and acting to win over hearts, minds, and stomachs.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n America’s current Ukraine policy has mostly neglected this kind of aid. That’s a shame. Washington has an opportunity to mitigate what the United Nations describes as an impending humanitarian disaster while combating the destabilizing power of Ukraine’s far-right radicals. It’s an opportunity that shouldn’t be ignored, because if angry, starving people take to the streets of Kiev, the result is likely to be most unpleasant, both for Ukrainian and American interests in the region. Meanwhile, the temperature is continuing to drop.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Et comment \u00e7a va, en Ukraine ? … Mal, tr\u00e8s mal, merci, et cela va mal car le danger fasciste guette. Ce n’est ni Russia Today, ni le Saker-US qui nous dit cela, mais rien de moins que Foreign Policy Magazine (du 8 octobre), qui nous est relay\u00e9 par NewColdWar.org (du 13 octobre). Étonnant article,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[2754,2863,17029,2864,15634,15635,3867,1267],"class_list":["post-76168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-extreme-droite","tag-foreign","tag-golinkine","tag-policy","tag-pravy","tag-sektor","tag-syrie","tag-terrorisme"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76168","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76168"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76168\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76168"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76168"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76168"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
dedefensa.org<\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
Winter is coming, and so is Ukraine’s far right<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
Lev Golinkine<\/h4><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"