Nous empruntons \u00e0 John Helmer, sur le site de John Helmer Dance with the Bears<\/em>, \u00e0 Moscou, une analyse particuli\u00e8rement ambitieuse de la perspective des nouveaux rapports entre Moscou et Ankara \u00e0 la suite du putsch avort\u00e9 d’Ankara. Compos\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de sources russes essentiellement, le texte offre une perspective particuli\u00e8rement large et une interpr\u00e9tation des \u00e9v\u00e9nements de tr\u00e8s grande ampleur g\u00e9opolitique.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n On trouve notamment des appr\u00e9ciations sur John Helmer dans notre texte du 5 juin 2016<\/a> : « Helmer est un citoyen am\u00e9ricain vivant depuis tr\u00e8s longtemps \u00e0 Moscou, \u00e0 la fois dans le monde des affaires mais aussi dans celui de la communication, soit comme correspondant, soit comme \u00e9diteur ind\u00e9pendant. Il est en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme une source disons \u00ab\u00a0originale\u00a0\u00bb, \u00e0 l’image d’un Isra\u00ebl Shamir, avec des contacts in\u00e9dits dans divers milieux de direction, en Russie et avec des connexions US. Il fait en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral clairement partie des commentateurs US de type \u00ab\u00a0dissident\u00a0\u00bb par rapport au Syst\u00e8me, sinon clairement antiSyst\u00e8me (selon les sujets)<\/em>. »<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Le texte original, sur le Dance with the Bears<\/em>, a \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9 le 26 juillet 2016 sous le titre complet de The new Byzantine Alliance — The Kremlin and the Porte Revolutionize the Centre of the Old World<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n ____________________<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n On August 9, in St. Petersburg, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin will meet Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The moment is revolutionary. There has not been a comparable political turning-point in the 67 years since the establishment of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); not in the century since the Ottoman Empire sided with Germany against Russia in World War I; nor in the two centuries since Ottoman Sultan Mahmud II and the Russian Tsar Alexander I aligned against Napoleon and the British.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Russian sources say they are sure the Russian secret services did not warn Erdogan or help his forces prevail in the July 15-16 coup against him. After Erdogan began his counter-coup, and in the fight still continuing between Erdogan’s Islamic forces and the regular Turkish military, the sources add, there has been, and there will be, Russian help. It is more for the future, they explain, than for last week’s outcome that Turkish deputy prime minister Mehmet imek told his counterpart Arkady Dvorkovich in Moscow on Tuesday: \u00ab\u00a0I would like to thank you for support regarding recent events in Turkey, for supporting democracy and the Turkish government.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The Russian sources say it is already agreed the two sides will pay a soon-to-be settled price in two-way trade; gas, nuclear and other energy projects; plus tourism. Much more is at stake, though, one of the sources adds. \u00ab\u00a0Putin and his advisors believe Erdogan is still in danger. They support him now for the opportunity to reorganize the relationship with Turkey. They mean to secure Russia from encirclement on the southern frontier and the Black Sea, dismemberment of the Caucasus, and attack on the Kremlin by its enemies. Right now, as Europe collapses, the enemy is the US with NATO in support. If Turkey breaks with the US, NATO is a paraplegic. We shall see how Putin and Erdogan choose to portray the new Rome (*), the new Byzantium (*) next Tuesday.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The new alliance agenda was formalized at a Security Council meeting on Monday afternoon. The Kremlin announced: \u00ab\u00a0The President briefed the permanent members of the Security Council on his recent telephone conversations with President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu in the context of preparations for the visit by the President of Turkey to Russia scheduled for early August.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Omitted were the military and intelligence briefings Putin received from Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) chief, Mikhail Fradkov; the deputy director of the council, Rashid Nurgaliyev; and the head of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Alexander Bortnikov.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Russian sources dismiss the foreign press narrative of last week’s military coup attempt suggesting Arab and Israeli foreknowledge of the coup. \u00ab\u00a0Plotting, bribing, and wishful thinking there were,\u00a0\u00bb one of the sources comments. \u00ab\u00a0But knowing and participating – that’s not what happened.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n In an analysis of the military operations in Istanbul and Ankara, Yevgeny Krutikov, correspondent of Vzglyad in Moscow, has reported<\/strong><\/a> there was no coordination between the Turkish Army, Navy and Air Force; poor command and control within each of the services; and inadequate troops and firepower on the streets to combat the turnout in Erdogan’s favour.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u00ab\u00a0There were simply not enough rebels. There was no chain of command. The ‘capture units’ for important facilities consisted of a maximum of 10 people under the command of officers from captain’s rank to lieutenant colonel. Among the insurgency leadership there wasn’t anyone above the rank of colonel. The entire ‘[rebel] company’ has done what it could. To try to seize power in a highly militarized country’s forces [you need] more than a tank battalion and a pair of helicopters. For bigger divisions they [rebels] just could not give any orders — without bumping into the requirement they answer a reasonable question: who are you anyway?\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Did the Russian intelligence services help Erdogan? \u00ab\u00a0That’s unreal,\u00a0\u00bbaccording to Krutikov. \u00ab\u00a0There was no agreement at all between the Russian and Turkish intelligence services. Besides, all contacts were frozen after the downing of the Russian aircraft [SU-24]. Radio signals of the manoeuvres of the coup’s armed forces were monitored by our military troops. There is a little likelihood this information was transmitted to the Turkish special services.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Russian sources are non-committal on what role US military and intelligence agencies played during the July 15 events at the Incirlik airbase and elsewhere to encourage, or not to discourage, the attempt at overthrowing Erdogan. What is certain now, as Erdogan tries to mop up, according to Greek and Cypriot analysts, is that Turkey has turned against the US and the NATO alliance. \u00ab\u00a0Turkey is now moving away from western dependence,\u00a0\u00bb says a well-informed region source who asks not to be identified. \u00ab\u00a0This makes sense geopolitically because the west has lost control in the Middle East. Other close western allies in the region, like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, are becoming autonomous, in the sense that they don’t obey the US. This is because the US can no longer act as a hegemon. Washington can’t dictate, or even recommend solutions to conflicts or rivalries, like Iraq, Syria, Libya, or Palestine. Now, with or without direct US involvement in the Turkish coup, Erdogan sees his chance to make Turkey more autonomous, so he is taking it.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Russian sources agree. Referring to Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (right), whose plan of attack against Russia in Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, and Cyprus have been reported here<\/strong><\/a> and here<\/strong><\/a>, a Moscow source concludes: \u00ab\u00a0The Nuland plots have all failed. The US can no longer talk to the Turks. Losing Turkey to Erdogan and his Islamists also means the US can dictate no longer in the region. You can’t expect the Americans will take it lying down. There’s no government in Washington right now. But if Clinton wins, there will be a US fight-back. It will be too late.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n As French princesses and Nuland have publicly suggested, revolutions require cakes, or at least cookies. The short-term payoffs to Erdogan’s business constituents, and Putin’s, were tabled swiftly at the July 26 meeting between Dvorkovich and Simsek; and at the following meeting between Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Turkish Economic and Energy Ministers, Nihat Zeybekci and Berat Albayrak. Details of their talks can be read here<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Military sources believe Erdogan’s position is still far from assured. \u00ab\u00a0The numbers and the spread of the purges tell you this is a continuous coup, which could turn into ethnic or communal revolts at any time, or civil war. Russia is positioning itself, as it did in the past, in favour of the stability of the Turkish state – right now this means Erdogan. The Kremlin is against breakup. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, a weak Turkey meant to Moscow that Russia’s enemies gained control of the vital Russian interests of the time, such as the Straits.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Greek, Cypriot and Russian sources questioned about the current course of events say the principal Russian objectives are obvious. Erdogan should stop the export of jihadis, ISIS, and sedition towards the Russian Caucasus in the form of the Chechens. He must also stop his regime-changing tactics in Syria, and not less in the Balkans and in Central Asia. The sources believe that in his current predicament Erogan is a better bet for the Kremlin than the Turkish military, or the so-called Kemalist or Gulenist political groups, encouraged by the US. If the pro-American or NATO elements can be uprooted and destroyed, Russia is bound to feel more secure — so long as Erdogan’s Sunni Islamic orientation will make its peace with Russia, as the Shiites of Iran and Iraq are doing.<\/p>\n<\/p>\nThe new Byzantine Alliance<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n