A la lumi\u00e8re de la confirmation avec les effets psychologiques et politiques \u00e0 mesure de la victoire syrienne de Deir ez-Zour, le long commentaire ci-dessous d’Alastair Crooke sur la \u00ab\u00a0panique Netanyahou\u00a0\u00bb prend une singuli\u00e8re importance. Les Syriens d’Assad ont, avec l’aide des Iraniens et surtout du Hezbollah, et le soutien a\u00e9rien massif de la Russie, emport\u00e9 une victoire strat\u00e9gique<\/a> qui marque \u00e9videmment un tournant dans le conflit syrien, et sans doute un tournant d\u00e9cisif. Le concours du Hezbollah dans cette bataille, comme dans la majeure partie du conflit, constitue un \u00e9l\u00e9ment majeur de ce conflit, et l’une des pr\u00e9occupations fondamentales de Netanyahou.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Crooke analyse dans toute son ampleur la tr\u00e8s difficile situation du Premier ministre isra\u00e9lien qui tient une position politique dont d\u00e9pend sa coalition sur une ligne maximaliste qui implique de tenir \u00e0 distance deux adversaires tr\u00e8s actifs en Syrie : le contingent iranien et le Hezbollah. Les deux se trouvent en position notable de renforcement, avec un soutien \u00e9ventuel d’une Syrie revigor\u00e9e, et sans que les habituels amis, alli\u00e9s ou correspondants d’Isra\u00ebl puissent ou veuillent faire grand’chose. Au reste, il s’agit d’une peau de chagrin pour Isra\u00ebl qui se trouve de plus en plus isol\u00e9 : l’alliance de facto <\/em>de l’Arabie n’a plus grand poids, vu l’\u00e9tat de grande d\u00e9bilit\u00e9 du royaume, les USA sont compl\u00e8tement sur la r\u00e9serve et dans un autre univers, et les Russes, avec lesquels Netanyahou a de bonnes relations, conseillent \u00e0 Isra\u00ebl d’\u00eatre \u00ab\u00a0r\u00e9aliste\u00a0\u00bb et d’accepter la nouvelle situation. D’une fa\u00e7on g\u00e9n\u00e9rale, souligne Crooke qui donne des d\u00e9tails int\u00e9ressants sur cette d\u00e9marche du Premier ministre, Netanyahou n’a pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 former une nouveau rassemblement international derri\u00e8re ses id\u00e9es de \u00ab\u00a0nationalisme ethnique\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Une attaque a\u00e9rienne isra\u00e9lienne<\/a> la nuit derni\u00e8re, contre une position syrienne proche de la fronti\u00e8re libanaise avec des missiles air-sol tir\u00e9s d’avions isra\u00e9liens ayant p\u00e9n\u00e9tr\u00e9 prudemment l’espace a\u00e9rien libanais (et pas syrien), signale cette extr\u00eame nervosit\u00e9 isra\u00e9lienne, mais sans convaincre de l’efficacit\u00e9 de la chose. Les Isra\u00e9liens ne sont pas en position de force. Selon plusieurs<\/a> sources<\/a>, les Russes tiennent compl\u00e8tement l’espace a\u00e9rien de la r\u00e9gion, notamment avec l’arriv\u00e9e de cinq avions d’alerte et de contr\u00f4le de l’espace a\u00e9rien \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grandes capacit\u00e9s Beriev A-50 d\u00e9sormais bas\u00e9s en Syrie. D’autre part, DEBKAFiles<\/a> <\/em>signale que le Hezbollah devrait \u00eatre conduit \u00e0 changer compl\u00e8tement ses tactiques et sa strat\u00e9gie suite aux victoires remport\u00e9es en Syrie, ce qui rend compl\u00e8tement caduc le sc\u00e9nario utilis\u00e9 par les forces arm\u00e9es isra\u00e9liennes dans des manœuvres en cours pour ttester ses capacit\u00e9s de l’emporter sur le Hezbollah : « In the remaining seven days of the exercise, the IDF still has a chance to update its scenario<\/em> », \u00e9crit ironiquement DEBKAFiles.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n L’article d’Alastair Crooke se trouve dans Consortium News<\/em>, le 2 septembre 2017<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n _________________________<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n A very senior Israeli intelligence delegation, a week ago, visited Washington. Then, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke into President Putin’s summer holiday to meet him in Sochi, where, according to a senior Israeli government official (as cited in the Jerusalem Post<\/em><\/a>), Netanyahu threatened to bomb the Presidential Palace in Damascus, and to disrupt and nullify the Astana cease-fire process, should Iran continue to \u00ab\u00a0extend its reach in Syria.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Russia’s Pravda <\/em>wrote<\/a><\/em>, \u00ab\u00a0according to eyewitnesses of the open part of the talks, the Israeli prime minister was too emotional and at times even close to panic. He described a picture of the apocalypse to the Russian president that the world may see, if no efforts are taken to contain Iran, which, as Netanyahu believes, is determined to destroy Israel.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n So, what is going on here? Whether or not Pravda’s<\/em> quote is fully accurate (though the description was confirmed<\/a> by senior Israeli commentators), what is absolutely clear (from Israeli sources<\/a>) is that both in Washington and at Sochi, the Israeli officials were heard out, but got nothing<\/a>. Israel stands alone. Indeed, it is reported<\/a> that Netanyahu was seeking \u00ab\u00a0guarantees\u00a0\u00bb about the future Iranian role in Syria, rather than \u00ab\u00a0asking for the moon\u00a0\u00bb of an Iranian exit. But how could Washington or Moscow realistically give Israel such guarantees?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Belatedly, Israel has understood that it backed the wrong side in Syria – and it has lost. It is not really in a position to demand<\/em> anything. It will not get an American enforced buffer zone beyond the Golan armistice line, nor will the Iraqi-Syrian border be closed, or somehow \u00ab\u00a0supervised\u00a0\u00bb on Israel’s behalf.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Of course, the Syrian aspect is important, but to focus only on that, would be to \u00ab\u00a0miss the forest for the trees.\u00a0\u00bb The 2006 war by Israel to destroy Hizbullah (egged on by the U.S., Saudi Arabia – and even a few Lebanese) was a failure. Symbolically, for the first time in the Middle East, a technologically sophisticated, and lavishly armed, Western nation-state simply failed<\/em>.<\/a> What made the failure all the more striking (and painful) was that a Western state was not just bested militarily, it had lost also the electronic and human intelligence war, too — both spheres in which the West thought their primacy unassailable.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Israel’s unexpected failure was deeply feared in the West, and in the Gulf too. A small, armed (revolutionary) movement had stood up to Israel – against overwhelming odds – and prevailed: it had stood its ground. This precedent was widely perceived to be a potential regional \u00ab\u00a0game changer.\u00a0\u00bb The feudal Gulf autocracies sensed in Hizbullah’s achievement the latent danger to their own rule from such armed resistance.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The reaction was immediate. Hizbullah was quarantined — as best the full sanctioning powers of America could manage. And the war in Syria started to be mooted as the \u00ab\u00a0corrective strategy\u00a0\u00bb to the 2006 failure (as early as 2007) — though it was only with the events following 2011 that the \u00ab\u00a0corrective strategy\u00a0\u00bb came to implemented, \u00e0 outrance<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Against Hizbullah, Israel had thrown its full military force (though Israelis always say, now,<\/em> that they could have done more). And against Syria, the U.S., Europe, the Gulf States (and Israel in the background) have thrown the kitchen sink: jihadists, al-Qaeda, ISIS (yes), weapons<\/a>, bribes, sanctions and the most overwhelming information war yet witnessed. Yet Syria – with indisputable help from its allies – seems about to prevail: it has stood its ground, against almost unbelievable odds.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Just to be clear: if 2006 marked a key point of inflection, Syria’s \u00ab\u00a0standing its ground\u00a0\u00bb represents a historic turning<\/em> of much greater magnitude. It should be understood that Saudi Arabia’s (and Britain’s and America’s) tool of fired-up, radical Sunnism has been routed. And with it, the Gulf States, but particularly Saudi Arabia are damaged. The latter has relied on the force of Wahabbism since the first foundation of the kingdom: but Wahabbism in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq has been roundly defeated and discredited (even for most Sunni Muslims). It may well be defeated in Yemen too. This defeat will change the face of Sunni Islam.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Already, we see the Gulf Cooperation Council, which originally was founded in 1981 by six Gulf tribal leaders for the sole purpose of preserving their hereditary tribal rule in the Peninsula, now warring with each other<\/em>, in what is likely to be a protracted and bitter internal fight. The \u00ab\u00a0Arab system,\u00a0\u00bb the prolongation of the old Ottoman structures by the complaisant post-World War I victors, Britain and France, seems to be out of its 2013 \u00ab\u00a0remission\u00a0\u00bb (bolstered by the coup in Egypt), and to have resumed its long-term decline.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Netayahu’s \u00ab\u00a0near panic\u00a0\u00bb (if that is indeed what occurred) may well be a reflection of this seismic shift taking place in the region. Israel has long backed the losing side – and now finds itself \u00ab\u00a0alone\u00a0\u00bb and fearing for its near proxies (the Jordanians and the Kurds). The \u00ab\u00a0new\u00a0\u00bb corrective strategy from Tel Aviv, it appears, is to focus on winning Iraq away from Iran, and embedding it into the Israel-U.S.-Saudi alliance.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n President Donald Trump touches lighted globe with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi King Salman and Donald Trump at the opening of Saudi Arabia’s Global Center for Combating Extremist Ideology on May 21, 2017. (Photo from Saudi TV)<\/p>\n<\/p>\n If so, Israel and Saudi Arabia are probably too late into the game, and are likely underestimating the visceral hatred engendered among so many Iraqis of all segments of society for the murderous actions of ISIS. Not many believe the improbable (Western) narrative that ISIS suddenly emerged armed, and fully financed, as a result of former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s alleged \u00ab\u00a0sectarianism\u00a0\u00bb: No, as rule-of-thumb, behind each such well-breached movement – stands a state<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Daniel Levy has written a compelling piece<\/a> to argue that Israelis generally would not subscribe to what I have written above, but rather: \u00ab\u00a0Netanyahu’s lengthy term in office, multiple electoral successes, and ability to hold together a governing coalition … [is based on] him having a message that resonates with a broader public. It is a sales pitch that Netanyahu … [has] ‘brought the state of Israel to the best situation in its history, a rising global force … the state of Israel is diplomatically flourishing.’ Netanyahu had beaten back what he had called the ‘fake-news claim’ that without a deal with the Palestinians ‘Israel will be isolated, weakened and abandoned’ facing a ‘diplomatic tsunami.’<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u00ab\u00a0Difficult though it is for his political detractors to acknowledge, Netanyahu’s claim resonates with the public because it reflects something that is real, and that has shifted the center of gravity of Israeli politics further and further to the right. It is a claim that, if correct and replicable over time, will leave a legacy that lasts well beyond Netanyahu’s premiership and any indictment he might face.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u00ab\u00a0Netanyahu’s assertion is that he is not merely buying time in Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians to improve the terms of an eventual and inevitable compromise. Netanyahu is laying claim to something different — the possibility of ultimate victory, the permanent and definitive defeat of the Palestinians, their national and collective goals.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u00ab\u00a0In over a decade as prime minister, Netanyahu has consistently and unequivocally rejected any plans or practical steps that even begin to address Palestinian aspirations. Netanyahu is all about perpetuating and exacerbating the conflict, not about managing it, let alone resolving it…[The] message is clear: there will be no Palestinian state because the West Bank and East Jerusalem are simply Greater Israel.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Levy continues: \u00ab\u00a0The approach overturns assumptions that have guided peace efforts and American policy for over a quarter of a century: that Israel has no alternative to an eventual territorial withdrawal and acceptance of something sufficiently resembling an independent sovereign Palestinian state broadly along the 1967 lines. It challenges the presumption that the permanent denial of such an outcome is incompatible with how Israel and Israelis perceive themselves as being a democracy. Additionally, it challenges the peace-effort supposition that this denial would in any way be unacceptable to the key allies on which Israel depends…<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u00ab\u00a0In more traditional bastions of support for Israel, Netanyahu took a calculated gamble — would enough American Jewish support continue to stand with an increasingly illiberal and ethno-nationalist Israel, thereby facilitating the perpetuation of the lopsided U.S.-Israel relationship? Netanyahu bet yes, and he was right.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n And here is another interesting point that Levy makes:<\/p>\n<\/p>\n \u00ab\u00a0And then events took a further turn in Netanyahu’s favor with the rise to power in the United States and parts of Central Eastern Europe (and to enhanced prominence elsewhere in Europe and the West) of the very ethno-nationalist trend to which Netanyahu is so committed, working to replace liberal with illiberal democracy. One should not underestimate Israel and Netanyahu’s importance as an ideological and practical avant-garde for this trend.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Former U.S. Ambassador and respected political analyst Chas Freeman wrote<\/a> recently very bluntly: \u00ab\u00a0the central objective of U.S. policy in the Middle East has long been to achieve regional acceptance for the Jewish-settler state in Palestine.\u00a0\u00bb Or, in other words, for Washington, its Middle East policy – and all its actions – have been determined by \u00ab\u00a0to be, or not to be\u00a0\u00bb: \u00ab\u00a0To be\u00a0\u00bb (that is) – with Israel, or not \u00ab\u00a0to be\u00a0\u00bb (with Israel).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The key point now is that the region has just made a seismic shift into the \u00ab\u00a0not to be\u00a0\u00bb camp. Is there much that America can do about that? Israel very much is alone with only a weakened Saudi Arabia at its side, and there are clear limits to what Saudi Arabia can do.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The U.S. calling on Arab states to engage more with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi seems somehow inadequate. Iran is not<\/em> looking for war with Israel (as a number of Israeli analysts have acknowledged<\/a>); but, too, the Syrian President has made clear that his government intends to recover \u00ab\u00a0all Syria\u00a0\u00bb – and all Syria includes<\/a> the occupied Golan Heights. And this week, Hassan Nasrallah called on the Lebanese government \u00ab\u00a0to devise a plan<\/a> and take a sovereign decision to liberate the Shebaa Farms and the Kfarshouba Hills\u00a0\u00bb from Israel.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n A number Israeli commentators already are saying that the \u00ab\u00a0writing is on the wall\u00a0\u00bb – and that it would be better<\/a> for Israel to cede territory unilaterally, rather than risk the loss of hundreds of lives of Israeli servicemen in a futile attempt to retain it. That, though, seems hardly congruent with the Israeli Prime Minister’s \u00ab\u00a0not an inch, will we yield\u00a0\u00bb character and recent statements<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Will ethno-nationalism provide Israel with a new support base? Well, firstly, I do not see Israel’s doctrine as \u00ab\u00a0illiberal democracy,\u00a0\u00bb but rather an apartheid system intended to subordinate Palestinian political rights. And as the political schism in the West widens, with one \u00ab\u00a0wing\u00a0\u00bb seeking to delegitimize the other by tarnishing them as racists, bigots and Nazis, it is clear that the real<\/em> America First-ers will try, at any price, to distance themselves from the extremists.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Daniel Levy points out that the Alt-Right leader, Richard Spencer, depicts his movement as White Zionism. <\/em>Is this really likely to build support for Israel? How long before the \u00ab\u00a0globalists\u00a0\u00bb use precisely Netanyahu’s \u00ab\u00a0illiberal democracy\u00a0\u00bb meme to taunt the U.S. Right that this is precisely the kind of society for which they too aim: with Mexicans and black Americans treated like Palestinians?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The increasingly \u00ab\u00a0not to be\u00a0\u00bb constituency of the Middle East has a simpler word for Netanyahu’s \u00ab\u00a0ethnic nationalism.\u00a0\u00bb They call it simply Western colonialism. Round one of Chas Freeman’s making the Middle East \u00ab\u00a0be <\/em>with Israel\u00a0\u00bb consisted of the shock-and-awe assault on Iraq. Iraq is now allied with Iran, and the Hashad militia (PMU) are becoming a widely mobilized fighting force. The second stage was 2006. Today, Hizbullah is a regional force, and not a just Lebanese one.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n The third strike was at Syria. Today, Syria is allied with Russia, Iran, Hizbullah and Iraq. What will comprise the next round in the \u00ab\u00a0to be, or not to be\u00a0\u00bb war?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n For all Netanyahu’s bluster about Israel standing stronger, and having beaten back \u00ab\u00a0what he had called the ‘fake-news claim’ that without a deal with the Palestinians ‘Israel will be isolated, weakened and abandoned’ facing a ‘diplomatic tsunami,'\u00a0\u00bb Netanyahu may have just discovered, in these last two weeks, that he confused facing down the weakened Palestinians with \u00ab\u00a0victory\u00a0\u00bb — only at the very moment of his apparent triumph, to find himself alone in a new, \u00ab\u00a0New Middle East.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Perhaps Pravda<\/em> was right, and Netanyahu did appear close to panic, during his hurriedly arranged, and urgently called, Sochi summit.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n Panique : Netanyahou, l’Iran et le Hezbollah A la lumi\u00e8re de la confirmation avec les effets psychologiques et politiques \u00e0 mesure de la victoire syrienne de Deir ez-Zour, le long commentaire ci-dessous d’Alastair Crooke sur la \u00ab\u00a0panique Netanyahou\u00a0\u00bb prend une singuli\u00e8re importance. Les Syriens d’Assad ont, avec l’aide des Iraniens et surtout du Hezbollah, et… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[13358,13357,2665,13035,4762,4472,2773,2774,4271,3867],"class_list":["post-77472","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-a-50","tag-beriev","tag-crooke","tag-debkafile","tag-ethnique","tag-hezbollah","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-nationalisme","tag-syrie"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77472","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77472\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}dde.org<\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n
The Reasons for Netanyahu’s Panic<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n
The Fallout from Failure<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
The Losing Side<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
No Palestinian State<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Israel’s Lost Ground<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
‘Ethnic Nationalism’<\/h3>\n<\/p>\n
Alastair Crooke<\/h4><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"