{"id":78975,"date":"2019-11-27T07:34:16","date_gmt":"2019-11-27T07:34:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2019\/11\/27\/trump-est-il-uneltsine-americain\/"},"modified":"2019-11-27T07:34:16","modified_gmt":"2019-11-27T07:34:16","slug":"trump-est-il-uneltsine-americain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/2019\/11\/27\/trump-est-il-uneltsine-americain\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump est-il un\u00a0Eltsine am\u00e9ricain\u00a0?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><h2 class=\"titleset_a.deepgreen\" style=\"color:#75714d; font-size:2em\">Trump est-il un Eltsine am\u00e9ricain ?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Trump, un \u00ab\u00a0Eltsine am\u00e9ricain\u00a0\u00bb (et non \u00ab\u00a0am\u00e9ricaniste\u00a0\u00bb car, bien s&ucirc;r, le syst\u00e8me de l&rsquo;am\u00e9ricanisme ne peut accepter cette sorte d&rsquo;analogie) ? C&rsquo;est une interpr\u00e9tation \u00e0 la fois \u00e9trange et originale que nous pr\u00e9sente Alastair Crooke ; mais si l&rsquo;on consid\u00e8re logiquement et objectivement le propos, qu&rsquo;y aurait-il d&rsquo;\u00e9trange et d&rsquo;original \u00e0 nous pr\u00e9senter une interpr\u00e9tation de cette sorte dans une \u00e9poque qui est compl\u00e8tement, aussi bien \u00e9trange qu&rsquo;originale et vice-versa ?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Alors, lisons donc Crooke et laissons-le, dans  <em><a href=\"http:\/\/strategic-culture.org\/\">Strategic-Culture.org<\/a><\/em>, ce  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.strategic-culture.org\/news\/2019\/11\/25\/is-trump-a-covert-ally-to-the-multipolar-order\/\">25 novembre 2019<\/a>, nous sugg\u00e9rer qu&rsquo;apr\u00e8s tout Trump pourrait bien \u00eatre ce qu&rsquo;il en est dit dans ce texte ; apr\u00e8s tout et tous compte fait, oui, Obama aurait bien \u00e9t\u00e9 l'\u00a0\u00bb<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article\/american-gorbatchev\">American Gorbatchev<\/a><\/em>\u00a0\u00bb que nous cr&ucirc;mes qu&rsquo;il pourrait bien \u00eatre, avant de  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article\/bye-bye-american-gorbatchev\">d\u00e9chanter<\/a>&#8230; Mais de d\u00e9chanter faussement puisque finalement, oui, Obama serait bien dans ce montage conceptuel, notre fameux \u00ab\u00a0<em>American <\/em>Gorbatchev\u00a0\u00bb dissimul\u00e9 sous le masque tr\u00e8s-<em>cool <\/em>de la <em>narrative <\/em>de l&rsquo;Am\u00e9rique exceptionnaliste, si l&rsquo;on veut en  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article\/mr-gorbatchev-goes-to-washington\">suscitant un d\u00e9sordre<\/a>  discret mais profond par rapport aux ambitions imp\u00e9rialistes du syst\u00e8me de l&rsquo;am\u00e9ricanisme, d\u00e9sordre que Trump r\u00e9v\u00e9la et prit en charge en l&rsquo;accentuant d&rsquo;une mani\u00e8re extraordinaire.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Voici un passage explicatif :<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>&laquo; <em>Selon une application pratique<\/em> [de cette conception]<em>, Obama pourrait \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9, comme certains le sugg\u00e8rent \u00e0 Moscou, comme le Gorbatchev du r\u00e9gime am\u00e9ricain (c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire l&rsquo;homme qui a commenc\u00e9 le retrait de certains des engagements les lointains et les plus pr\u00e9gnants de l&rsquo;Empire) ; Trump serait donc, dans cette analogie, le Eltsine de ce r\u00e9gime (c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire le pr\u00e9sident qui s&rsquo;est recentr\u00e9 sur la sc\u00e8ne int\u00e9rieure, et sur la r\u00e9duction du fardeau des r\u00e9publiques qui formaient autrefois des parties de l&rsquo;URSS).<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&raquo; <em>L&rsquo;op\u00e9ration de r\u00e9duction des effectifs ext\u00e9rieurs et de reconstruction structurelle \u00e0 l&rsquo;int\u00e9rieur est une entreprise difficile. Et cela ne s&rsquo;est pas bien pass\u00e9 pour la Russie.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&raquo; <em>Les raisons pour lesquelles Trump se concentre sur la Chine en tant qu&rsquo;adversaire hostile sont claires. Cette d\u00e9marche r\u00e9pond au besoin d&rsquo;avoir une narrative simple pour expliquer au public le d\u00e9clin relatif de l&rsquo;Am\u00e9rique (\u00ab\u00a0C&rsquo;est enti\u00e8rement la faute de la Chine qui vole &lsquo;nos&rsquo; emplois et &lsquo;notre&rsquo; propri\u00e9t\u00e9 intellectuelle\u00a0\u00bb). La Chine fournit \u00e9galement un ennemi sans \u00e9quivoque qui \u00ab\u00a0menace culturellement notre mode de vie\u00a0\u00bb ; et enfin, elle offre une solution : \u00ab\u00a0Nous allons nous reprendre avec notre \u00e9conomie\u00a0\u00bb. <\/em>&raquo;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Alastair Crooke propose une th\u00e8se tendant \u00e0 montrer que l&rsquo;action erratique de Trump produit des effets inattendus, d&rsquo;une part selon la position extr\u00eamement complexe qu&rsquo;il occupe, d&rsquo;autre part selon une psychologie et une exp\u00e9rience \u00e9galement erratiques, avec le seul but politique de retirer le plus possible l&rsquo;Am\u00e9rique de politiques et de positions qu&rsquo;en tant que <em>businessman <\/em>il juge extr\u00eamement d\u00e9fectueuses parce que d&rsquo;un rapport faible sinon n\u00e9gatif. D&rsquo;o&ugrave; cette politique erratique qui serait compl\u00e8tement diff\u00e9rente dans son but de son fameux slogan MAGA (\u00ab\u00a0<em>Make America Great Again<\/em>\u00ab\u00a0) puisqu&rsquo;il s&rsquo;agit d&rsquo;un repli d\u00e9finitif, politique par ailleurs difficile \u00e0 identifier en premi\u00e8re analyse puisque faite de circonvolutions pour \u00e9viter les obstacles et les pressions qu&rsquo;un <em>establishment <\/em>demeur\u00e9 dans l&rsquo;\u00e9tat d&rsquo;esprit de l&rsquo;\u00e9poque imp\u00e9riale ne cesse de dresser  contre lui.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>&laquo; <em>On nous laisse entendre que le \u00ab\u00a0moment\u00a0\u00bb unipolaire de la domination US est en train de le c\u00e9der, \u00e0 contrec&oelig;ur, \u00e0 un monde multipolaire : un retour peut-\u00eatre \u00e0 un \u00ab\u00a0concert\u00a0\u00bb de puissances (ou de \u00ab\u00a0p\u00f4les\u00a0\u00bb significatifs, &ndash; la taille n&rsquo;\u00e9tant pas toujours le facteur d\u00e9terminant) comme au XIXe si\u00e8cle. Et Trump ne ferait qu&rsquo;essayer simplement de prolonger ce moment h\u00e9g\u00e9monique et am\u00e9ricain, &ndash; bien que par des moyens diff\u00e9rents, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire en adoptant des actes et un langage apparemment bizarres, et parfois contre-productifs, qui exasp\u00e8rent l&rsquo;establishment am\u00e9ricain de politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&raquo; <em>Mais ce point de vue est-il juste ? Peut-\u00eatre Trump est plut\u00f4t une sorte de crabe. Peut-\u00eatre a-t-il besoin d&rsquo;avancer vers ses fins d&rsquo;une fa\u00e7on tortueuse, comme un crabe, plut\u00f4t que d&rsquo;aller droit devant \u00e0 toute vapeur, pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment parce qu&rsquo;il est l&rsquo;objet d&rsquo;une attaque politique concert\u00e9e<\/em>&#8230; &raquo;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Crooke d\u00e9veloppe une analyse serr\u00e9e de ce qu&rsquo;il nomme g\u00e9n\u00e9reusement \u00ab\u00a0la strat\u00e9gie\u00a0\u00bb de Trump, laquelle correspond au personnage et s&rsquo;est d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e comme un slalom dans le champ de mines qu&rsquo;est \u00ab\u00a0D.C.-la-folle\u00a0\u00bb si l&rsquo;on a \u00e0 l&rsquo;esprit les incroyables p\u00e9rip\u00e9ties du pouvoir am\u00e9ricaniste depuis son \u00e9lection. L&rsquo;analyse rationnelle, qui examine les positions des divers acteurs, des \u00ab\u00a0ennemis\u00a0\u00bb \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition qu&rsquo;institue <em>l&rsquo;establishment <\/em>ou le<em>DeepState<\/em>comme vous voulez, semble d\u00e9crire \u00e0 la fois une trag\u00e9die-bouffe du d\u00e9sordre mondial et une \u00ab\u00a0bataille de chiens\u00a0\u00bb (<em>dogfight<\/em>, disent les pilotes de chasse) dans les cocktails de Washington D.C., d&rsquo;un pseudo-empire en chute finale qui ne cesse de se d\u00e9chirer lui-m\u00eame et de semer partout les ruines sanglantes de la fureur de son impuissance&#8230;  <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Finalement et peut-\u00eatre plus \u00ab\u00a0s\u00e9rieusement\u00a0\u00bb, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire imp\u00e9rativement, Crooke en en revient aux imp\u00e9ratifs \u00e9lectoraux de Trump, de ce personnage improbable qui, probablement (certainement, selon  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article\/trump-aux-origines-ii\">Michael Moore<\/a>), n&rsquo;avait aucune intention ni espoir de devenir pr\u00e9sident, qui s&rsquo;\u00e9tait lanc\u00e9 dans la course pour des questions de promotion t\u00e9l\u00e9visuelle&#8230; Et le voil\u00e0 pr\u00e9sident !<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Ainsi sa \u00ab\u00a0strat\u00e9gie\u00a0\u00bb, qui est en fait pour lui la cons\u00e9quence de son \u00e9lection bien plus que la cause, est-elle faite pour tenter de satisfaire ce qu&rsquo;il juge \u00eatre sa base \u00e9lectorale, que l&rsquo;on pourrait qualifier sans que lui-m\u00eame s&rsquo;en f&ucirc;t avis\u00e9 \u00e0 l&rsquo;origine, de populiste et d&rsquo;isolationniste, &ndash; et cette \u00ab\u00a0strat\u00e9gie\u00a0\u00bb parvenant finalement \u00e0 accoucher indirectement d&rsquo;une politique g\u00e9n\u00e9rale qui s&rsquo;inscrit dans le grand courant de r\u00e9volte contre le programme globaliste du Syst\u00e8me ; sans express\u00e9ment l&rsquo;avoir voulu, peut-\u00eatre, sans doute, mais ainsi avec infiniment plus d&rsquo;efficacit\u00e9&#8230; <em>Si non <\/em><em>\u00e8 vero, \u00e8 bene trovato<\/em>, que l&rsquo;on traduirait par \u00ab\u00a0si cela n&rsquo;est pas vrai dans l&rsquo;intention, c&rsquo;est incroyablement efficace dans l&rsquo;action\u00a0\u00bb&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>&laquo; <em>Ainsi, lorsque nous parlons de la \u00ab\u00a0strat\u00e9gie\u00a0\u00bb g\u00e9opolitique de Trump, nous entendons par l\u00e0, premi\u00e8rement la strat\u00e9gie d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e d&rsquo;abord pour conserver les bases \u00e9lectorales-clef de son soutien : les \u00ab\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article\/french-touch-nous-sommes-tous-les-deplorables\">Deplorables<\/a>\u00a0\u00bb bien s&ucirc;r, mais aussi l&rsquo;AIPAC et les \u00e9vang\u00e9listes (25% de l&rsquo;\u00e9lectorat affirme \u00eatre \u00e9vang\u00e9liste, attach\u00e9 \u00e0 une vision litt\u00e9rale et eschatologique du Grand Isra\u00ebl, dans le contexte de la R\u00e9demption) ; et deuxi\u00e8mement, la strat\u00e9gie d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e pour affaiblir les courants internes aux &Eacute;tats \u00e9trangers qui soutiennent le globalisme et recherchent des relations plus proches avec les <\/em>[globalistes, d\u00e9mocrates et progressistes-soci\u00e9taux]<em>aux &Eacute;tats-Unis. Cela renforce effectivement les autres acteurs qui ne veulent pas de relations fortes avec l&rsquo;Am\u00e9rique <\/em>[qui menaceraient leur souverainet\u00e9]<em>, et qui, par extension, ont un int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9vident pour un monde multipolaire<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>&raquo; <em>Quand vous regardez partout dans le monde, vous voyez que les politiques am\u00e9ricaines ont renforc\u00e9 les courants souverainistes, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire notamment l&rsquo;Iran, la Russie, la Chine. Est-ce simplement paradoxal, &ndash; ou d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9 ? Comme l&rsquo;a fait remarquer un intellectuel russe, \u00ab\u00a0les tendances conservatrices de Trump et sa profonde pr\u00e9disposition isolationniste le placent en position d&rsquo;\u00eatre un alli\u00e9 objectif des n\u00f4tres (c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire la Russie et la Chine), celui qui facilite la r\u00e9alisation de notre projet\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>. &raquo;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Nous ignorons si cette d\u00e9monstration rationnellement tr\u00e8s bien structur\u00e9e correspond r\u00e9ellement \u00e0 une conviction de l&rsquo;auteur lorsqu&rsquo;il est question du seul Trump. Il est vrai qu&rsquo;il y a du rationnel dans cette \u00e9volution vers un cadre multipolaire, mais il est moins \u00e9vident que cette rationalit\u00e9 s&rsquo;applique \u00e0 Trump lui-m\u00eame, comme s&rsquo;il avait eu, d\u00e8s l&rsquo;origine, une strat\u00e9gie dans ce sens. On sent, dans la plume d&rsquo;Alastair Crooke, parfois la tentation d&rsquo;un clin d&rsquo;&oelig;il lorsqu&rsquo;il est question du personnage de Trump lui-m\u00eame.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Certes, le d\u00e9bat \u00e0 ce propos reste ouvert, et l&rsquo;on souffrira qu&rsquo;il soit pos\u00e9 en ces termes : Trump, personnage s\u00e9rieux capable d&rsquo;\u00e9laborer une \u00ab\u00a0strat\u00e9gie\u00a0\u00bb,  ou simple instrument de forces qui le d\u00e9passent. On sait que, pour nous, ce d\u00e9bat est compl\u00e8tement tranch\u00e9, et qu&rsquo;il le fut pratiquement au cours de la campagne \u00e9lectorale, avant que Trump ne s&rsquo;install\u00e2t \u00e0 la Maison-Blanche, alors que le m\u00eame Michael Moore identifiait ce m\u00eame Trump comme \u00ab\u00a0un  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article\/une-election-entre-survie-et-cocktail-molotov\">cocktail Molotov humain<\/a>\u00a0\u00bb (&laquo; <em>Et ils <\/em>[ces \u00e9lecteurs] <em>voient Donald Trump comme leur cocktail Molotov humain qu&rsquo;ils ont l&rsquo;occasion d&rsquo;allumer dans l&rsquo;isoloir le 8 novembre <\/em>[2016] <em>pour le lancer sur notre syst\u00e8me politique. Je pense qu&rsquo;ils adorent l&rsquo;id\u00e9e de faire sauter le syst\u00e8me<\/em> &raquo;).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><p>Mais ce jugement (Trump, comme \u00ab\u00a0simple instrument de forces qui le d\u00e9passent\u00a0\u00bb) s&rsquo;accorde parfaitement, tous comptes faits, avec l&rsquo;analogie de faire de Trump un Eltsine \u00e0 l&rsquo;am\u00e9ricaine, c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire un Gorbatchev prolong\u00e9 dans Eltsine ; c&rsquo;est-\u00e0-dire, du point de vue op\u00e9rationnel, le d\u00e9sordre de Trump accouch\u00e9 et aliment\u00e9 par la politique d&rsquo;Obama qui poursuivit la <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dedefensa.org\/article\/glossairedde-politiquesysteme-ii\">politiqueSyst\u00e8me<\/a> des <em>neocons <\/em>de Bush (et \u00ab\u00a0idiots utiles\u00a0\u00bb du Syst\u00e8me), mais en lui imposant une dialectique charg\u00e9e d&rsquo;une moraline exceptionnaliste (selon Obama, \u00e0 consommation int\u00e9rieure) conduisant \u00e0 faire des &Eacute;tats-Unis le porteur d&rsquo;eau \u00e0 visage d\u00e9couvert des entreprises d\u00e9structurantes du Syst\u00e8me, et donc \u00e0 placer les &Eacute;tats-Unis en position d&rsquo;\u00eatre d\u00e9test\u00e9s et rejet\u00e9s par tous les autres&#8230; Et ainsi, acc\u00e9l\u00e9rant la pente de la chute de l&#8217;empire en introduisant Trump-Eltsine.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>De ce point de vue, bien qu&rsquo;adversaire impitoyable et m\u00e9prisant de Trump, Obama a partie li\u00e9e avec Trump, cette fois selon le m\u00eame constat qui deviendrait valable pour les deux (Obama et Trump \u00ab\u00a0simple[s] instrument[s] de forces qui le[s] d\u00e9passent\u00a0\u00bb). Ce serait Obama qui aurait pouss\u00e9 Trump vers la maturation tonitruante de cette politique de d\u00e9sordre antiSyst\u00e8me qui s&rsquo;av\u00e8re pour lui [Trump] le seul moyen de conserver sa base \u00e9lectorale. Les deux auraient form\u00e9 cet \u00e9trange attelage yankee Gorbatchev-Eltsine \u00e0 force de suivre des politiques dont ils se disaient les ma&icirc;tres et qui leur furent en fait impos\u00e9es (par le Ciel, certes), se justifiant \u00e0 leurs yeux par les pi\u00e8tres consid\u00e9rations politiciennes du personnel politique disponible pour la Fin des Temps ; et tout cela, il faut le pr\u00e9ciser avec force car nous ne sommes plus dans un \u00e9pisode interm\u00e9diaire (comme avec la Russie des ann\u00e9es 1990) mais dans l&rsquo;approche de la conclusion, tout cela sans la moindre possibilit\u00e9 de trouver un Poutine-yankee \u00e0 l&rsquo;arriv\u00e9e, &ndash; absolument hors des desseins divins&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Puisque Bossuet le disait, le Ciel r\u00e9sonne de cette ironie c\u00e9leste et c&rsquo;est donc bien que &laquo; <em>Dieu se rit des hommes qui d\u00e9plorent les effets dont ils ch\u00e9rissent les causes<\/em> &raquo;.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><h4><em>dedefensa.org<\/em><\/h4>\n<\/p>\n<p><p> _________________________<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><h2 class=\"titleset_b.deepgreen\" style=\"color:#75714d; font-size:1.65em; font-variant:small-caps\">Is Trump a &lsquo;Covert Ally&rsquo; to the Multipolar Order?<\/h2>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>We are led to understand that the unipolar &lsquo;moment&rsquo; of US ascendency is giving way &ndash; grudgingly &ndash; to a multipolar world: a reversion perhaps to a more nineteenth century &lsquo;concert&rsquo; of powers (or, of significant &lsquo;poles&rsquo; &ndash; since size is not always the prime determinant). And that Trump is trying simply to prolong that hegemonic, US moment &ndash; albeit through different means, which is to say, adopting seemingly bizarre, and sometimes counterproductive, acts and language, that infuriate the American foreign policy establishment.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>But is this view right? Maybe &ndash; Trump is more of a crab. Maybe he needs to proceed towards his ends, crab-like, rather than full-steam straight-ahead, precisely because he is subject to such concerted political attack.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Some in Russia think the very notion of America &lsquo;First&rsquo; carries &lsquo;in its belly&rsquo; the implication of a letting-go of the globalist &lsquo;Empire&rsquo; project, and a return to focus on the internal American situation, and the challenges which the US faces internally (i.e. a return to the type of non-interventionist conservatism which Pat Buchanan represented, but which the US neo-cons loathed, and set out utterly to destroy precisely &ndash; because it foreclosed on &#8217;empire&rsquo;).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>In practical terms, Obama can be viewed, as some in Moscow suggest, as the Gorbachev of the American regime, (i.e. the man who began the retrenchment out from certain of the Empire&rsquo;s more extended nodes); and Trump then, in this analogy, is the Yeltsin of this regime: (i.e. the president who has re-focused on the internal arena, and on reducing the burdens of the republics that used to constitute parts of the Soviet Union).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>The retrenchment-and-rebuild-at-home shift is hard. And it did not turn out well for Russia.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>The motives for Trump&rsquo;s focus on China as a hostile challenger is clear: It serves the need of having a simple popular narrative to account for America&rsquo;s relative decline (it is all China&rsquo;s fault &ndash; stealing &lsquo;our&rsquo; jobs and our intellectual property). It provides too, an unequivocal enemy that culturally threatens &lsquo;our&rsquo; way of life &ndash; and it offers a solution: &lsquo;We shall take back our economy&rsquo;.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>But what may not be so clear is whether Trump is actually so opposed to the notion (in principle) of a concert of powers. Though bearing in mind the neo-con and liberal interventionist rage at Pat Buchanan&rsquo;s earlier policy inwardness (and scepticism of intervention), it might be unwise of Trump to admit to such inclinations &ndash; even were he to have them. Hence, the crab-like sideways motion towards its destination.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Is then Trump&rsquo;s outreach toward Russia (whilst China is demonised), simply a Mackinder-ish attempt to divide Russia and China from each other, in order for Trump to be able to triangulate his interests between a (separated) China and Russia &ndash; and which therefore is integral to a continuing US hegemonic project &ndash; or is it not? Or, does it have another purpose? It is, after all, pretty obvious that such a divide-and-rule ruse will never work, so long as the close personal relationship between Presidents Xi and Putin, holds good. Both leaders understand triangulation, and both view the &lsquo;concert&rsquo; of poles initiative &ndash; as an existential requirement for their states.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Or, is Trump&rsquo;s continuous effort at outreach to Russia somehow connected to his understanding of how the US might quietly transition from a moment of overextended empire &ndash; to something smaller, within a multi-polar framework?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Why might Trump want &ndash; even indirectly and covertly &ndash; to encourage such transition? Well, if you were hoping to exit one of empire&rsquo;s more troublesome nodes, you do not want immediately to be pulled right back-in, through another war, just as you start to pack your bags &ndash; the Middle East is one very obvious example.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>And by escalating against Iran, Trump both appeals to the globalist &lsquo;realpolitik&rsquo; component of the deep state, and to those liberals who support interventions under the &lsquo;moral high ground&rsquo; banner, but who implicitly also seek to consolidate globalization. Are Trump&rsquo;s tactics &ndash; berating Iran at every opportunity &ndash; somehow an effort at neutralising the globalists (mindful of Pat Buchanan&rsquo;s fate)?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Trump knows at bottom that his core electoral base is isolationist, and wants an end to &lsquo;forever&rsquo; wars. He campaigned precisely on this pledge. Is the &lsquo;maximum pressure&rsquo;, and threats of war, then precisely meant to substitute for actual war? Whilst, at the same time, appeasing Israel, by effectively taking negotiations with Iran &lsquo;off the table&rsquo; (i.e. by undoing Obama&rsquo;s having putting rapprochement on the table &ndash; thus unsettling the sense of security of Israel and the Gulf States?).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Iran seems to think so: both Iranian and Hizbullah leaders have asserted rather emphatically that Iran tensions will not result in war. In such a play, Russia plays a key role: It tries somehow to &lsquo;balance&rsquo; between Iran and Israel (at least for now). Is not this exactly how a concert of powers is supposed to work?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>So when we speak of Trump&rsquo;s geo-political &lsquo;strategy&rsquo;, we mean the meshed strategy of firstly retaining key electoral bases of support: the deplorables, of course, but also AIPAC and the Evangelicals (25% of the electorate claim to be Evangelical, and who are attached to a literal, eschatological view of a Greater Israel, in the context of Redemption), and secondly, of weakening the internal currents in overseas states which support globalism and seek closer relations with the US. This effectively strengthens the sides who not want strong relations with America, and by extension, have a clear interest in a multipolar world.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Wherever you look around the globe, America&rsquo;s policies have strengthened the sovereigntists: i.e. Iran, Russia and China. Is this simply paradoxical &ndash; or deliberate? As one Russian thinker has noted, \u00ab\u00a0Trump&rsquo;s conservative tendencies and his deep isolationist predisposition, are placing him in the position of being an objective ally of ours (i.e. Russia and China). One who is facilitating the realisation of our project.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Is this Iran&rsquo;s understanding, too? Possibly, but in any event, were it to be so, it would fit well with Iran&rsquo;s geo-strategy. It would not demand of Iran its compliance with the regional status quo (which it would never agree to).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>The seven year Iran-Iraq war had left the revolution intact, but the population war-weary. This war however, taught the Iranian leadership the imperative of preventing another head-to-head conventional war &ndash; and instead, to prepare its forces for a new-generation unconventional conflict &ndash; mounted &lsquo;far away&rsquo; from the homeland, and calibrated carefully, precisely to avoid going head-to-head with a state &ndash; or its people, if possible.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>And just as the US Evangelicals see the coming into being of Greater Israel as an eschatological necessity, so the founders of the Islamic Republic embraced an eschatology (the Jafari School, named after the Sixth Imam Ja&rsquo;far al-Sadiq), which names Jerusalem as central to the return of the Mahdi, and to the establishment of Islamic government throughout the world &ndash; as promised by the Prophet Mohammed. According to both Sunni and Shia prophecies, the army foreordained to conquer Jerusalem is to be comprised mostly, but not exclusively, of people from the region of Iran, with Iranians  <a href=\"http:\/\/thesaker.is\/irans-qods-force-and-modern-proxy-wars\/\" target=\"_blank\">having a great and important role<\/a>  in the event. Yes: We have almost exact opposite symmetry between the Hebraic and Islamic eschatologies.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>A role for Russia as maintaining the &lsquo;balance&rsquo; then, is not surprising. This may be how a concert of powers is supposed to work. But will it? Or will it end as disastrously as Yeltsin&rsquo;s effort, with the collapse of the US economy ?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>The shift from a unipolar &lsquo;order&rsquo; to a concert of poles (in which Iran, Turkey and India may be expected to feature) is a complicated exercise. Much of the Iranian leadership (though perhaps not President Rouhani), may &ndash; in principle &ndash; think it an excellent idea, were the US to take a turn inwards, and go away. But this sentiment is definitely not reflected in Israel.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>In spite of all the unilateral Trump &lsquo;gifts&rsquo; to Israel (Jerusalem as capital, Golan as Israel, the settlements as not illegal, etc.), Israel is feeling an existential fear and loneliness. Thus, it is an exceedingly fragile &ndash; and indeed increasingly improbable balance &ndash; that Trump is trying to mount (with President Putin&rsquo;s tacit assistance).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>It may well collapse &ndash; and with it, Trump&rsquo;s hope for &lsquo;clean&rsquo; exit: leaving the Middle East to stew on its own.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>And, as a final speculation: Is this somewhat similar to what has been going on between Trump and Xi (i.e. a play analogous to that with Iran)? Is Trump ramping up the max-pressures, and threats of Cold War against China, to substitute for the military war that some of his deep state might love him to fight, but which Trump has no intention of doing?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>Is there some tacit understanding that China collaborates in Trump&rsquo;s blowing of the stock market bubble in the US (China plays well its part in Trump&rsquo;s market manipulation &ndash; with a trade deal always &lsquo;almost there&rsquo;), as Trump, in his turn, tries to keeps Hong Kong &lsquo;off the table&rsquo;? All good &lsquo;concert of power&rsquo; type trades?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><p>And is the US Congress &ndash; with its bill from both &lsquo;Houses&rsquo; aimed at putting Hong Kong right back &lsquo;on the table&rsquo; &ndash; intent, with this bill, on destroying Trump&rsquo;s implicit collaboration in the creation of a multipolar order?<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><h4>Alastair Crooke<\/h4><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump est-il un Eltsine am\u00e9ricain ? Trump, un \u00ab\u00a0Eltsine am\u00e9ricain\u00a0\u00bb (et non \u00ab\u00a0am\u00e9ricaniste\u00a0\u00bb car, bien s&ucirc;r, le syst\u00e8me de l&rsquo;am\u00e9ricanisme ne peut accepter cette sorte d&rsquo;analogie) ? C&rsquo;est une interpr\u00e9tation \u00e0 la fois \u00e9trange et originale que nous pr\u00e9sente Alastair Crooke ; mais si l&rsquo;on consid\u00e8re logiquement et objectivement le propos, qu&rsquo;y aurait-il d&rsquo;\u00e9trange et&hellip;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"neve_meta_sidebar":"","neve_meta_container":"","neve_meta_enable_content_width":"","neve_meta_content_width":0,"neve_meta_title_alignment":"","neve_meta_author_avatar":"","neve_post_elements_order":"","neve_meta_disable_header":"","neve_meta_disable_footer":"","neve_meta_disable_title":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[2664,3612,3977,14061,2665,3483,10641,2773,5338,2878,915,7328,6208,2730,3512],"class_list":["post-78975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ouverture-libre","tag-alastair","tag-american","tag-chine","tag-cocktail","tag-crooke","tag-gorbatchev","tag-humain","tag-iran","tag-molotov","tag-monde","tag-moore","tag-multipolaire","tag-obama","tag-russie","tag-souverainisme"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78975"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78975\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/new.dedefensa.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}